One variation of an old saying goes, “If ifs and ands were pots and pans, there’d be no work for tinkers,” and another goes, “If a frog had wings he wouldn’t bump his backside when he jumps.”

Those sayings are meant to dissuade people from hypothesizing about an event that is not likely to happen.

They are adages for a reason. They hold elements of truth.

Despite the warnings established by those adages, it is still worth noting that if the Mississippi electorate follows the pattern established by voters in other states in recent elections – even in solidly Republican areas – the Mississippi contest for the U.S. Senate later this year could be closer than expected.

Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, a close ally of President Donald Trump, is a heavy favorite to win reelection this November and continue serving in the nation’s Capitol as Mississippi’s junior senator. Heck, a Democrat has not won a statewide election in Mississippi since Jim Hood garnered reelection as attorney general in 2015.

But in 10 special elections, granted district elections not state contests, held across the country since Dec. 9, Democrats have performed on average 13% better than they did in the previous elections in those same districts.

Even in statewide elections – gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia – the Democrat did better in 2025 than in the previous election in 2021– by 9.4% in Virginia and by 5.6% in New Jersey.

If (there is that word) the Democrat running against Hyde-Smith could do as well this November, the election would be exceedingly close and she could even lose.

In her last election in 2020, she defeated Democrat Mike Espy 54% to 44%. When the pair ran against each other in a special election in 2018 months after Hyde-Smith had been appointed to temporarily fill the Senate seat, Espy garnered 46.4% of the vote.

This time around, Lowndes District Attorney Scott Colom is the favorite to win the Democratic primary on March 10 and face Hyde-Smith in November. He faces opposition from Albert Littell and Priscilla W. Till. Hyde-Smith, for that matter, is being challenged in the Republican primary by Sarah Adlakha and Andrew Smith.

Ty Pinkins, who has run for statewide office in the past as a Democrat, will be vying in the Senate contest in the November general election as an independent, creating an additional headwind for the Democratic nominee. 

Democrats have exceeded their performances in recent elections presumably because of voter disenchantment with Republican President Trump.

A key question is whether voters in Mississippi, where Trump has historically been popular, feel the same disenchantment?

Trump faces various headwinds right now. Many voters are still struggling with economic woes. Plus, Trump still faces questions concerning his closeness to sex offender Jeffrey Epstein and the fact that the U.S. Department of Justice seems to be violating the law to slow-walk the release of files that perhaps could shed light on that relationship. Then, there are questions about Trump’s strange obsession with controlling or acquiring other countries, even making threats of military action against longtime allies.

And there is always the issue of his inappropriate comments regarding the deaths of people he did not like. 

Will all of those issues and others impact elections in Mississippi, like they have affected elections in other states?

Heck, even in Mississippi, there was at least one recent special election where the Democrat did much better than in past contests.

In a Nov.10  special election in state Senate District 19 in northwest Mississippi, incumbent Kevin Blackwell won by only 6.6%. In the 2023 regular election, Blackwell won by a sizable margin of 31.4%. Granted, Blackwell ran in 2025 in a new court-ordered district that increased the percentage of Black voters, who tend to vote Democratic, but the increase was minimal from 25.4% to 27.5%.

If (there is that word again) those election trends hold true, Hyde-Smith could be in for a challenge this November.

If frogs had wings…