OurTupelo

The third-party and potential protest-vote candidate drops out of the race but still could cause a runoff because she is still on the ballot.

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Nearly 13,000 Mississippians were kicked from Medicaid’s rolls in September during the most recent batch of disenrollments, while the agency’s backlog grows.

The latest numbers bring the state’s total disenrollments to 81,454 people, most of whom were dropped for paperwork issues, not because they were found to be ineligible.

Medicaid divisions all over the country are reviewing their rolls for the first time in three years after the end of federal regulations that prevented state Medicaid agencies from disenrolling beneficiaries during the pandemic. Prior to this process, referred to as “unwinding,” Mississippi Medicaid enrollment exceeded 900,000 people for the first time in the agency’s history. 

June numbers showed that 29,460 Mississippians were dropped in the first wave of disenrollments. Another 22,507 people followed in July, and 16,659 people were disenrolled in August.

Many of them have been children, according to the agency’s monthly enrollment reports. Federal research predicts that kids are most at risk of losing benefits during unwinding, and it’s not clear how many are being dropped despite being eligible. Before the terminations began, children in low-income families made up more than half of the state’s Medicaid rolls. 

Almost 45,000 kids in Mississippi have been dropped from Medicaid since the start of unwinding. 

Though Medicaid's spokesperson Matt Westerfield previously told Mississippi Today that the agency hopes to increase its ex-parte rate, or automatic renewal rate, the state continues to disproportionately drop beneficiaries for procedural reasons, which means their paperwork was either not turned in on time or it was incomplete. 

Of the 12,828 people dropped in September, around 75% were procedural disenrollments. Overall, Mississippi reports a 78% procedural disenrollment rate thus far. According to KFF, 72% of all people disenrolled were terminated for procedural reasons across all states with available data. 

And though it appears in recent data that Mississippi’s disenrollments are decreasing, that’s because the agency’s backlog is growing. 

During the first round of disenrollments completed in June, Mississippi Medicaid didn’t get around to checking the eligibility of 5,892 people that were due for the review. However, that backlog has significantly increased — to 19,402 in July; 29,788 in August and now 45,989 in September. 

Westerfield did not reply to questions by press time. 

As Republican Gov. Tate Reeves continues to voice his opposition to Medicaid expansion, which would insure thousands more working Mississippians, unwinding is set to continue for months. Thousands more Mississippians are poised to lose Medicaid coverage amid a statewide health care crisis — nearly half of the state’s rural hospitals are at risk of closure, according to one report. 

KFF says at least 8,696,000 people nationally have been dropped from Medicaid as of Oct. 11.

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Welcome to The Homestretch, a daily blog featuring the most comprehensive coverage of the 2023 Mississippi governor’s race. This page, curated by the Mississippi Today politics team, will feature the biggest storylines of the 2023 governor’s race at 7 a.m. every day between now and the Nov. 7 election.

It’s the prevailing question in Mississippi political circles: Can incumbent Republican Gov. Tate Reeves earn over 50% of the vote on Nov. 7 to avoid a runoff with Democratic challenger Brandon Presley?

Because of a recent change in the Mississippi Constitution, the governor’s race could be decided by a runoff for the first time in the state’s 206-year history.

Recent polling indicates Reeves leads Presley by single digits, but several polls suggest it will be a struggle for him to break the 50% mark. If he doesn’t, the two candidates will face a runoff on Nov. 28, the Tuesday after Thanksgiving.

Over the weekend, Republican and Democratic operatives in Mississippi were openly speculating about the runoff possibility with other politicos, according to several sources across the state. Both campaigns, according to the sources, are said to be preparing for the possibility of a three-week November sprint to the runoff election.

If you’re curious about why the runoff is a possibility this year, Mississippi Today political reporter Taylor Vance provided us with a deep dive. It involves the elimination of a Jim Crow era law and the curious independent candidacy of Gwendolyn Gray.

Gray recently dropped out of the race and endorsed Presley, but her exit came so late in the race that ballots were already printed with her name on them. That means any votes for her will count, and her presence could send the state into an unprecedented political spectacle.

Three weeks — the time between today and the Nov. 7 election — is a lifetime in politics. Three more weeks for a potential runoff feels like an eternity.

Headlines From The Trail

Listen: The wildest week (so far) of the 2023 governor’s race

Watch: Gov. Tate Reeves sits down with WLOX-TV in Biloxi

Gov. Tate Reeves, needing to shore up right-wing turnout, attends closed-door meeting with concerned conservatives

At Jackson State homecoming, Brandon Presley pledges to advocate for Mississippi HBCUs

MPB to broadcast Nov. 1 debate between Reeves and Presley

Democrat Brandon Presley outraises GOP Gov. Tate Reeves in home stretch

Welfare scandal defendant sues Gov. Tate Reeves, claims he’s protecting himself and political allies

Could protest votes throw governor’s race into runoff?

What We’re Watching

1) Tate Reeves is working to shore up support from the most conservative bloc of Republican Party voters, many of whom have been less than thrilled with his leadership during his first term. He continues to pan the national Democrats, even firing off a tweet late Saturday night about Louisiana Governor-elect Jeff Landry’s decisive victory over “the far left policies of the national Democratic Party.”

2) Brandon Presley, meanwhile, is working to shore up support from Black Democrats, many of whom have felt ignored or burned in the past by white Democratic candidates like Presley. He campaigned at the Jackson State homecoming game on Saturday, and he also spent time over the weekend at events with Reps. Bennie Thompson of Mississippi and Jim Clyburn of South Carolina.

3) Reeves last week began airing a new TV ad that touts his solution to the state’s hospital crisis — an issue he’s been largely silent on for months, even as Presley has made it a pillar of his campaign. Mississippi Today’s Devna Bose fact-checked some of Reeves’ claims about his own role in health care policy decisions.

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About 40 protesters gathered Monday, Oct. 16, at the International Museum of Muslim Culture in Jackson in protest of the Israeli–Palestinian conflict.

Delana Tavakol, an Iranian-American from Jackson, yelled “Free, free Palestine!” into a bullhorn after wiping away tears. The group’s message was no ground invasion, no occupation, and free Palestine. Speakers from Jackson’s Muslim and Christian communities spoke at the protest, citing the genocide and inhumanity in the conflict.

On Oct. 7, Hamas launched a surprise attack from Gaza on Israeli towns during a Jewish holiday, causing casualties and abductions. Israel responded with airstrikes and declaring a state of war. As reported by the Associated Press, the Hamas attack resulted in over 1,400 Israeli casualties, with the majority being civilians. Additionally, at least 155 individuals, including children, were taken into Gaza by Hamas, marking the deadliest conflict for Israel since the 1973 war with Egypt and Syria.

In Gaza, officials said the Palestinian death toll is at 2,750.

Thirty U.S. citizens also have been killed and 13 remain unaccounted for.

The post Photos: Pro-Palestine rally held in Jackson appeared first on Mississippi Today.

Brandon Presley, the Democratic nominee for governor, got thrown off script Saturday when a DJ, in the maze of tailgating tents at Jackson State University’s homecoming game, grabbed a microphone to cut him off and ask a question.

“Are you going to continue to support HBCUs?” the man asked Presley. “Not just the first year?”

Presley, who also campaigned at an Alcorn State University game last weekend, responded to cheers and applause: “I’ll be back at Alcorn and back here next year, I promise you that.”

The impromptu back-and-forth at one of the state’s largest football events of the year was a highlight of an hours-long campaign Saturday — just 24 days before Election Day. Presley, who faces Gov. Tate Reeves on Nov. 7, shook hundreds of hands and took dozens of selfies at the JSU game in an attempt to supercharge voter turnout for the upcoming general election.

The university is a pillar of the state’s capital city, where more than 80% of the residents are Black. If Presley wants a shot at becoming the first Democrat elected governor since 1999, mobilizing a significant portion of the metro area — and Black voters who make up the base of the Democratic Party — will be crucial.

“Mississippi is 40% Black, and I think as a candidate for governor it’s important that you show up and not expect Black voters to vote for you, but you earn their vote,” Presley told reporters over the weekend.

One hurdle Presley, who has served the past 15 years as north Mississippi’s utility regulator, faces is he’s never appeared on a statewide ballot, and having low name ID in central Mississippi could prove problematic for his electoral chances.

State Sen. Sollie Norwood, a Democrat from Jackson and noted Jackson State alumnus, served as the primary liaison on Saturday between the throng of fans and the Democratic candidate because he believes there still could be capital city residents who don’t know enough about Presley.

“We had an overwhelming crowd of folks that wanted to see him,” Norwood told Mississippi Today. “And I haven’t met anyone today who was not impressed with him or not impressed with his message.”

Presley, a 46-year-old white man from northeast Mississippi who attended Mississippi State University, may be an unlikely figure to rub elbows with the university’s alumni at the homecoming game.

But some JSU fans who interacted with the Democratic nominee told Mississippi Today Presley’s personal story resonated with them. Presley has talked extensively this cycle about growing up with little money to a single mother, and some voters say they hope he’ll enact policies that benefit all Mississippians.

“He’s a small-town guy that grew up similar to how I did,” Stanley Johnson said. “I’ve done my homework on him, and I feel like he’ll keep his word.”

One of those promises to the fans was that if he were elected governor in three weeks, Presley would use his new position to advocate for more state dollars going toward Jackson State University and other Mississippi HBCUs.

JSU’s football stadium sits across from the University of Mississippi Medical Center, the state’s only academic research hospital. Pointing to both institutions on Saturday, the Democrat said he wanted a capital city where the two organizations helped grow Jackson.

“Those are what could be two economic engines for the city of Jackson, and I believe the state has good reason to invest in both because both are publicly owned institutions,” Presley said. “That is a way we could bring economic development to Jackson, and it’s just the right thing to do.”

Presley’s campaign visit to the game also spurred people to share feelings that the university and other historically Black colleges are getting shortchanged by its current state leaders, who are white Republicans.

Jeff Payne, who took his picture with Presley, said he doesn’t remember many statewide candidates campaigning at JSU games in years past and said he hopes Presley’s visit is more than a one-time photo opp.

“I’m looking for change in Mississippi, and I’m looking for someone who cares about HBCUs in our state. And I think Brandon fits that,” Payne said.

The post At Jackson State homecoming, Brandon Presley pledges to advocate for Mississippi HBCUs appeared first on Mississippi Today.

In this edition of Mississippi Stories, Mississippi Today Editor-at-Large Marshall Ramsey sits down with artist Carlton Turner. Turner works across the country as a performing artist, arts advocate, policy shaper, lecturer, consultant, and facilitator.

Carlton is also founder of the Mississippi Center for Cultural Production. The MCCP (Sipp Culture) uses arts and agriculture to support rural community, cultural, and economic development in his hometown of Utica, Mississippi, where he lives with his wife Brandi and three children.

The post Mississippi Stories: Carlton Turner appeared first on Mississippi Today.

Oct. 15, 1883

The U.S. Supreme Court struck down the Civil Rights Bill of 1875 as unconstitutional, saying the government could not control the prejudices of people or companies. 

Black Americans had sued theaters, hotels and transit companies, which refused them admittance, but Justice Joseph Bradley wrote in an 8-1 decision that “legislative power extends only to the subject of slavery … and the denial of equal accommodations in inns, public conveyances and places of public amusement … imposes no badge of slavery or involuntary servitude upon the party.” 

Bishop Henry McNeil Turner raged that the “world has never witnessed such barbarous laws entailed upon a free people as have grown out of” this ruling, which “has made the ballot of the black man a parody, his citizenship a nullity and his freedom a burlesque. It has engendered the bitterest feeling between the whites and blacks, and resulted in the deaths of thousands, who would have been living and enjoying life today.” 

In a dissent, Justice John Harlan decried such discrimination, saying the goal of government is to “mete out equal and exact justice to all, of whatever nativity, race, color, or persuasion, religious or political.” Harlan called such discrimination a “badge of servitude, the imposition of which Congress may prevent under its power, through appropriate legislation, to enforce the 13th Amendment.” 

Black Americans would have to wait eight decades before Congress passed another civil rights law barring discrimination in public accommodations and employment.

The post On this day in 1883 appeared first on Mississippi Today.

Gov. Tate Reeves and legislative leaders, especially House Speaker Philip Gunn, did a lot of chest thumping with the passage of a personal income tax cut in 2022.

The tax cut appears to be doing what was projected, at least in terms of generating less revenue to fund the state’s vital services.

Through nine months of calendar year 2023 — the first year of the phase-in of that much ballyhooed tax cut — the state has collected $276.9 million less in personal income taxes than were collected during the same period in 2022.

In 2022, the tax cut was touted as the largest in state history: a $525 million cut in the personal income tax over a four-year period. Based on tax collections during the first nine months of the phase in of the tax cut, it appears that the impact on state revenue might be more than the estimated $525 million.

The only problem with the tax cut at the time of passage, Reeves and Gunn argued, was that it was not big enough. They wanted the total elimination of the income tax, which accounts for about one-third of the total state general fund revenue. Some, most notably Lt. Gov. Delbert Hosemann and Senate Finance Committee Chair Josh Harkins, successfully resisted efforts to eliminate the tax.

Granted, other factors might be contributing to the reduction in income tax cut revenue this year. But with record unemployment, which Reeves also likes to tout, and personal income growth that has occurred not only in Mississippi but nationwide, it is difficult to think of many reasons other than the 2022 income tax cut as the reason for the decrease in income tax collections.

Even as that massive tax cut is being phased in, the two candidates for governor, the incumbent Reeves and Democratic challenger Brandon Presley, already are proposing more tax cuts. Reeves still wants to phase in a complete elimination of the income tax, an estimated cost of $2 billion annually in today’s dollars. Presley wants to eliminate or reduce the 7% sales tax on groceries, which is the nation’s highest statewide sales tax on food. Research in 2019 by the campaign of Jim Hood, the unsuccessful Democratic candidate for governor that year, estimated that the complete elimination of the grocery tax would cost the state $327 million annually.

As the state approaches the Nov. 7 general election, perhaps a closer examination of the 2022 tax cut is warranted.

Leading up to the 2022 tax cut, Reeves and Gunn argued that cuts in the personal income tax would result in more and not less state revenue. They contended Mississippians would use the money from their tax cuts to buy items, thus resulting in more state revenue from the 7% sales tax.

Through nine months of the phase-in of the tax cut, it does not appear that is happening. While the state has collected $276.9 million less in income tax revenue than was collected during the same time in 2022, only $83.3 million more in sales tax revenue has been garnered. That is a net loss of nearly $200 million in revenue for calendar year 2023, based on a compilation of the monthly revenue reports from the Legislative Budget Committee staff.

If that trend continues, at some point the next governor and Legislature will be grappling with where to make budget cuts.

According to reports published by the University Research Center in 2021 and 2022, the more effective way to grow state revenue, the economy and the state population is by expanding Medicaid instead of by cutting taxes.

Comparing the numbers from two separate reports, expanding Medicaid — which would result in significantly more than $1 billion annually from the federal government to provide health insurance to primarily the working poor — would have a much greater impact in Mississippi than eliminating the income tax. It should be pointed out the study at the time specifically probed a House plan being considered to not only eliminate the income tax cut but also reduce the grocery tax and car tags while increasing the sales tax on other items.

Expanding Medicaid would result in higher wage growth, more state revenue, a stronger economy and even more population growth, based on a comparison of the two University Research Center reports.

Just looking at jobs and wage growth by comparing the two reports, by the fourth year of Medicaid expansion, 11,081 jobs with an additional $812.4 million in personal income would be generated. For the tax cut plan, 1,815 new jobs and an additional $85.8 million in personal income would be generated.

As often has been reported, Reeves touts he is a numbers guy. Those are the numbers.

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