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Longtime prosecutor Doug Evans, known for trying Curtis Flowers six times for murder with convictions that were later overturned, is headed for a Nov. 29 runoff for a circuit court judge seat.

Evans earned the second-most votes Tuesday in five-person election and will face top vote-getter Winona Municipal Court Judge Alan “Devo” Lancaster because neither candidate garnered 50% of the vote.

The 5th Circuit Court district includes Attala, Carroll, Choctaw, Montgomery, Grenada, Webster and Winston counties. The winner will succeed Judge George Mitchell, who died in April.

As a circuit court judge, Evans could hear criminal cases in the same district where the U.S. Supreme Court said he prevented Black people from serving as jurors, including in Flowers’ case. 

Evans, who has been the district attorney of the district for over 30 years, first tried Flowers in 1997 for the killings of four people at the Tardy Furniture store in Winona. 

Evans secured four death penalty convictions for Flowers, but those were overturned by state and federal courts. In two trials, a jury didn’t reach a unanimous verdict. 

READ MORE: Curtis Flowers files federal lawsuit against Mississippi DA Doug Evans for misconduct in wrongful prosecution

The U.S Supreme Court overturned Flowers’ conviction in 2019, ruling Evans barred Black jurors in the case. 

Evans recused himself after the Mississippi Center for Justice, which represented Flowers, asked for him to be removed from the case. Attorney General Lynn Fitch was appointed as the lead prosecutor.

In September 2020, Fitch’s office dropped charges against Flowers after he spent 23 years in prison, most of it on death row at the Mississippi State Penitentiary at Parchman. 

In 2021, Flowers sued Evans in federal court for misconduct, which Evans has denied. U.S. District Court Judge Neal Biggers Jr. ordered the case stayed until May 1, 2023.

Other candidates in the 5th District Circuit Court race were Ackerman attorney Kasey Burney Young, Kosciusko attorney Doug Crosby and Louisville attorney Zachary Madison. 

Lancaster is a partner at the Lancaster Taylor Law Firm in Winona. He has been a municipal judge in Winona since 2010 and attorney for Montgomery County Economic Development since 1986. 

The post Embattled DA in Curtis Flowers case headed to runoff in circuit judge race appeared first on Mississippi Today.

Three Mississippi U.S. House incumbents won handily, and a new U.S. House member was elected on Tuesday, according to preliminary election results gathered by the Associated Press.

Incumbent U.S. Reps. Trent Kelly in the 1st Congressional District, Bennie Thompson in the 2nd Congressional District and Michael Guest in the 3rd Congressional District easily won their races on Tuesday. In the 4th Congressional District, Mike Ezell won his first term in the U.S. House.

Thompson, the longest serving delegate representing Mississippi in Washington, remains the state’s sole Democratic representative. Kelly, Guest and Ezell are Republicans.

While the national spotlight was on key battleground states and congressional districts to determine which party would control the U.S. House and Senate, there was never much doubt who would win Mississippi’s four contested elections. Various reports indicate that turnout was light across the state on Tuesday.

Neither of Mississippi’s two U.S. senators, Roger Wicker or Cindy Hyde-Smith, were up for reelection this year. The seat Wicker holds is up for grabs in 2024, and the seat Hyde-Smith holds is up in 2026.

In the House races:

• District 1 incumbent Kelly, a former district attorney in northeast Mississippi, defeated Dianne Dodson Black, an Olive Branch small business owner. Kelly was first elected to Congress in a 2015 special election to replace Alan Nunnelee, who died in office. Black was attempting to become the first African American woman from Mississippi elected to a federal office.
• District 2 incumbent Thompson upended Brian Flowers of Clinton, a Navy veteran who works in mechanical planning at the Grand Gulf Nuclear Power Plant near Port Gibson. Thompson, chair of the Homeland Security Committee and the special committee formed to investigate the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol, is the second Black Mississippians to serve in Congress in the modern era.
• District 3 incumbent Guest, a former district attorney in Madison and Rankin counties, beat Neshoba County native Democrat Shuwaski Young. Young was running for office for the first time, but has experience working in the Mississippi Secretary of State’s office and in Homeland Security on the national level. Guest was first elected in 2018.
• In District 4, Ezell, who defeated incumbent U.S. Rep. Steven Palazzo in the Republican primary earlier this year, defeated Democrat Johnny DuPree and Libertarian Alden Patrick Johnson. DuPree, former mayor of Hattiesburg, also has run unsuccessfully for governor and secretary of state. In 2011, DuPree became the first African American major party nominee for governor.

Other contests across Mississippi, such as for judicial posts and school board seats, also were on the ballot.

Click here to see full results from Tuesday’s midterm elections.

The post Mississippi election results: Three Republicans, one Democrat again win U.S. House seats appeared first on Mississippi Today.

As Jacksonians prepare for the winter, and the ominous possibility of another water system failure, they’re also coping with the looming uncertainty of how their drinking water will be managed in the years to come. 

“I really don’t know what to expect,” said Kathy Sykes, a lifelong Jackson resident and former state lawmaker, about the future of the water system. “Problems with our water system are going to be magnified once the cold weather sets in.”

On Monday, Mayor Chokwe Antar Lumumba said the system remains vulnerable to the winter weather, which last year froze equipment at the city’s main treatment plant and shut off drinking water for thousands of residents for over a month. The cold weather led to a citywide boil water notice in 2018 because of bursting pipes, and caused similar issues in 2014 and 2010 as well. 

For now, the federal government is leading discussions over the long-term plan for the water system, with the Department of Justice negotiating a settlement with Jackson’s lawyers over the city’s drinking water violations. Yet the status of those talks and what potential outcomes they might yield are hidden from the public because of a confidentiality agreement between the two parties. 

Similarly, Jackson has a “very-detailed” spending plan the city has shared with the Environmental Protection Agency, but which it can’t share with the public because of a different confidentiality agreement, city officials said. 

In the meantime, Sykes and others continue to see abrupt interruptions to their water connections. Since Sept. 15, when the state lifted the last citywide boil water notice, Jackson has issued 30 boil water notices, more than one every other day, to over 2,200 customers because of breaks in the aging distribution system, ranging from a day to nearly a week in duration.  

Jackson recently announced it’s seeking a contractor to manage its water facilities for the next year, which the mayor said he expects to begin Nov. 17, pending city council approval. The governor’s state of emergency is set to end just after on Nov. 22, which would mark the state’s takeover of Jackson’s water operations at nearly three months.

But other than that, there is little foresight for the city’s residents over the future control of their water system. Adding to the uncertainty, Gov. Tate Reeves has expressed growing distrust in Jackson’s ability to manage the system on its own.

Reeves argued recently that the August crisis was a result of Mayor Chokwe Antar Lumumba’s “absolute and total incompetence,” and said that it’s “not that difficult” to run a drinking water system. 

In a September press conference, the governor said that “there is a need” for state lawmakers to “take action” on a long-term solution, and later cast doubt over whether Jackson would operate its own water system “anytime soon, if ever again.” To date, however, Reeves has not pushed for a specific outcome. 

The city’s failures appear in virtually every corner of the drinking water system: operators are underpaid, leaving staffing shortages; miles of undersized water lines need replacing; and equipment at the two treatment plants haven’t been maintained or are so old they can’t be fixed. 

The city has for years planned to decommission one of the plants, the century-old J.H. Fewell, but now can’t because of shortcomings at the 30-year-old O.B. Curtis, which also may need replacing, according to the mayor.

Meanwhile, Jackson city council members have met with Reeves and Lt. Gov. Delbert Hosemann to discuss possible solutions, council president Ashby Foote said. Foote told Mississippi Today that Hosemann proposed creating a “utility district” for Jackson that would be governed by a board, similar to what rural water authorities use. 

Hosemann’s office confirmed he has met with stakeholders, but declined an interview for further details. 

Publicly, Lumumba has yet to entertain any long-term solution aside from sending the city more money. For years, the state government has built barriers to Jackson’s ability to raise money, as the NAACP argues in a Civil Rights Act complaint that the EPA has agreed to investigate. Reeves disputed some of those allegations in a letter to Congress. 

Jackson’s water issues also parallel a decline in the federal government’s share of local water spending, which plummeted from 31% in 1977 to 7% in 2017, according to congressional budget data. 

In that time, the city’s ability to replace federal spending only grew worse, as its population decreased 26% since 1980, and a failed water meter contract with Siemens led to a 31% decrease in water and sewer revenue from 2014 to 2020, city budget records show. 

But the path to rehabilitation requires more than just money, water system experts and local officials agree.

“Pouring more money into a failing institution does not fix that institution,” said Manuel Teodoro, a public policy scholar at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Teodoro has helped consult water utilities since the 1990s, and served on expert advisory panels for local and state governments, UNICEF and the World Health Organization. 

Jackson, Teodoro explained, is unique only in the degree of its infrastructure failure, but the circumstances the city is facing are “depressingly ordinary” around the United States. 

Part of the issue, he said, is there are “way too many” water and sewer utilities around the country. Teodoro – as well as other water policy experts – is a proponent of regionalization, citing the theory that creating “economies of scale,” or pooling resources together, saves every city and suburb money in the long run. 

Regionalizing can take different forms, whether it’s combining physical infrastructure or combining operations staff. 

“Anyway you slice it, bigger is better,” Teodoro said. “There's no question, in my mind, that Jackson, just like anywhere else in the country, would be better off with a larger organization running the utilities for the region.”

Cleveland, Ohio, for instance, is a 48% Black city of 368,000, and is part of a regional authority that serves drinking water to 1.3 million people including the city’s suburbs. Cleveland, like Jackson, has seen financial issues amid population loss over the years, but has had relatively few issues with its drinking water, Teodoro said. 

Opponents of regionalizing look at Detroit as a cautionary tale: as part of the city’s bankruptcy deal in 2014, a court forced the city into a regional water authority, GLWA. While the authority pays the city to lease its water facilities, researchers from University of California Berkeley found that GLWA actually underpays Detroit, and in recent years it aggressively shut off water connections for residents in debt. 

Without a push from the state or federal government, Jackson and its neighbors appear unwilling to join forces, Mississippi Today reported in September. 

Regionalization, another expert said, can surface trust issues between communities, especially where there’s a history of racism or marginalization. 

“Whether communities want to cooperate or want to cede decision-making power over their drinking water to a community that they see as not having their best interest in mind, that can be tough,” said Sara Hughes, an associate professor at the University of Michigan who studies water management. “Even if it technically makes a lot of sense or is what looks best on the spreadsheet, I think that can be a big ask for communities sometimes.” 

Jackson losing control is part of why Lumumba is wary of a regional authority, and it’s also why he’s repeatedly shut down the idea of privatization, a model that serves drinking water to 15% of Americans. 

Opponents to privatization usually point to increased costs, which is an accurate assessment, Teodoro said, but one that only paints part of the picture. 

“It turns out you get what you pay for,” he said. “And what you have in the case of investor-owned (or private) systems is higher prices, but consistently higher quality.”

If a private company bought Jackson’s water system, the PSC would regulate any rate increases the company proposes, Northern District Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley confirmed. 

The costs and benefits of a privatized system comes down to incentives, Teodoro explained. Because they’re investing in the infrastructure – and because they can profit from making upgrades, as a 2017 Washington Post story explored – private companies are quicker to raise rates to fund needed improvements.

The Washington Post story also found, though, that cities dissatisfied with a private company’s service have difficulty trying to buy back their systems because of the high price tag. 

But regardless of who owns it, a city’s water system is expensive, and whoever runs it will have to be willing to raise rates on residents’ water bills, Teodoro said.  

“People are going to pay for (water systems) with their taxes, or they’re going to pay for them with their health,” he said.

While Jackson raised water and sewer rates by 20% last December, it was the first rate hike since 2013, WLBT reported, and also a lower increase than what the city’s consultants recommended.  

City officials, who have to spend money and run for elections on issues other than just water, have historically lacked incentive to raise people’s water rates until a catastrophe hits, Teodoro explained.

“That’s not because Jackson’s past leaders were stupid or evil, they were making rational decisions,” he said. “That has nothing to do with the politics of Jackson. That has everything to do with the politics of every local government in the United States.”

While Lumumba has shut down alternatives to the city continuing to operate its water system the way it has for years, some of Jackson’s city council are hoping for a change. 

Councilman Kenneth Stokes called for the state to take over Jackson’s water system, and said if the state doesn’t do it, then the federal government should take control instead. Stokes added that he would also support privatizing the system. 

“We got to make sure that we put citizens first,” he said. “All this, ‘This is my territory, this is mine,’ that’s nonsense when you got children drinking contaminated water.”

Councilman Vernon Hartley, whose ward in west Jackson regularly feels the brunt of water pressure issues, said that while he wants the city to retain primary control, he would support regionalization. A regional authority, he reasoned, would mean more money and more political influence.

“It's apparent to me that the way we've been doing things is not right,” Hartley said. “We’re going to pressure the federal government into giving (Jackson) more money, and which it needs to (do). But without proper management of that money, we’re going to end up in the same place.” 

Recognizing the obstacles to regionalization, Teodoro mentioned certain measures – such as Jackson paying more to join because of its financial baggage, or the federal government subsidizing suburbs such as Byram and Clinton – to create incentives for regionalization. But one incentive, he said, should already exist: pride.     

“It should be shameful to the people of Mississippi to have that degree of infrastructure failure in your state capital,” Teodoro said. “So, if for no other reason, then I would think state pride would make folks want to participate in regional solutions, sustainable solutions for Jackson's water.” 

The post The mystery of what’s next for Jackson’s water system appeared first on Mississippi Today.

Mississippi’s health care crisis has reached a grim, catastrophic, inevitable point. 

Hospitals are closing, and many more are on the verge. Already sporadic health services are being slashed. Hundreds of thousands of Mississippians cannot afford the care they need. Too many people are dying.

Worst of all, our state’s leaders do not appear to be in any hurry to help.

In such bleak moments, it’s difficult not to ponder some “what-ifs.” Today could have been a day celebrated as a victory for Mississippi’s future — one that truly changed the trajectory of the state. An overwhelming majority of Republicans and Democrats alike would be headed to the polls, deciding to do for themselves what their elected officials have refused to do for more than a decade: expand Medicaid.

Expanding Medicaid, as 38 other states have done and two more are poised to do, would immediately address some of the most urgent aspects of the crisis. It would provide health care for hundreds of thousands of poor, working Mississippians who can’t afford trips to the doctor for basic care or emergencies. It would give an immediate shot in the arm to the dozens of hospitals that are struggling to balance budgets and keep their doors open. It would bring our poorest-in-the-nation state more than $1 billion in new revenue every year. It would create tens of thousands of new jobs, and it would save countless lives and livelihoods.

But there will be no such celebration today.

Last year, the Mississippi Supreme Court handed down an unprecedented ruling that killed Mississippi’s ballot initiative process, which gave voters the direct power to change laws. That broadly unpopular court decision halted a bipartisan campaign to collect signatures to put Medicaid expansion on the ballot this November. And state legislative leaders — many of the same ones who have rejected Medicaid expansion for more than 10 years — broke their promises to restore that power to voters.

Since we launched in 2016, Mississippi Today has proudly held elected officials accountable and provided Mississippians with the information they need to do the same. For months, our health care and political reporters have closely covered the growing crisis and its effects. But no issue warrants more focused, intensive scrutiny than our leaders’ inaction during this time.

So this week, we are launching a long-term project that focuses on the imminent crisis and potential solutions to it — including Medicaid expansion.

More than a dozen Mississippi Today staffers have been working on this project for several weeks. We will be thorough and independent, tough and fair. But above all else, we will be dogged in our pursuit of truth.

Our project will, first and foremost, thoroughly define the extent of the Mississippi health care crisis. It will show how hundreds of thousands of working Mississippians cannot afford the basic preventative care that keeps the more costly hospital visits and debilitating personal debt at bay. It will show how Mississippi has more rural hospitals at immediate risk of closing than any state in the nation and what that means for so many communities across the state. It will show how the state’s abysmally low investment in public health negatively affects every Mississippian, even those who have private health insurance and can get the care they need.

We will also define what, exactly, Medicaid is. The federal policy is wonky and incredibly difficult to understand. The term “Medicaid expansion” itself has become weaponized by opportunistic politicians, used as a smoke screen to avoid talking earnestly about its merits. We aim to cut through the jargon and political noise to show the direct effects of the policy, how it could change lives across the state, and what the state could stand to gain by passing it.

And perhaps most importantly, we will squarely confront the politics of the crisis. Even as cries for state intervention have grown on both sides of the political aisle, a handful of elected officials have seemingly decided it is not worthy of focus. They regularly invoke the name of former President Barack Obama, who championed the federal health care program in question, as the chief reason not to expand Medicaid. They disregard nonpartisan economic studies that show the enormous benefits to the state. Too often, they have even seemingly ignored the health care crisis itself.

Many of these elected officials have consistently said they don’t believe the state can afford to expand Medicaid. We will always listen to and share their explanations for that, and we will seek to better understand them. But we cannot ignore appropriate context from state and national experts who have datasets that show otherwise. And we will talk with elected officials in other states — including leaders in dozens of red states that have expanded Medicaid — about how their decision is working out for them.

We hope our journalism will force our state’s leaders to at least acknowledge and reckon with the health care challenges we all face. Beyond that, we will respectfully press them with questions about possible solutions.

Some will question the timing of this project. Lawmakers typically ignore addressing major issues in legislative sessions during major statewide election years, like in 2023. From our perspective, there is no better time to pose these questions than during an election year. 

Others will accuse us of partisanship or advocacy. An important reality we will consider daily as we serve the public: A vast majority of Mississippians, regardless of political leaning, support expanding health care access to poor, working people. A vast majority of Mississippians support accepting federal funding to help keep hospitals open. And no one can question that every Mississippian wants a better future for their children and for themselves.

One year from now, when all 174 legislative seats and eight statewide offices are on the ballot, every voter will have the ability to intimately understand where their leaders stand on the health care crisis and what they have done — or not done — to address it. We’ll make sure of it.

If you have questions, suggestions, or comments about this project, contact editor-in-chief Adam Ganucheau at adam@mississippitoday.org.

The post Leaders are ignoring the Mississippi health care crisis. We aren’t. appeared first on Mississippi Today.

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Gov. Tate Reeves, in a letter he released to the public Monday, disputed the notion that the state government had put up “roadblocks” to funding for Jackson’s water system, as both Congress members and the NAACP have alleged. Those claims are now the focus of an active investigation by the Environmental Protection Agency into the state’s spending.

In the letter, responding to a request for information from U.S. Reps. Bennie Thompson and Carolyn Maloney, Reeves again shifted blame for Jackson’s ongoing water crisis onto the city’s mismanagement.

The letter details the city’s long list of federal drinking water violations, which include staffing shortages, contaminant violations, and failing to install corrosion control to ensure the absence of lead in the distribution system. The governor also blamed Jackson for its inability to collect water revenue after a failed water meter contract with Siemens.

“Of the more than 1,100 water systems in Mississippi, only the system operated by (Jackson) is unable to set and collect rates sufficient to cover its costs of operations, maintenance and debt service,” Reeves wrote.

Reeves countered the argument from the U.S. representatives that the state had provided a disproportionate amount of federal funding to Jackson. With money from the Drinking Water State Revolving Fund, the primary avenue for federal funding of water infrastructure improvements, Jackson received $28 million in FY 2021, or about two-thirds of the state’s total allotment.

He also addressed the NAACP’s point that Jackson has only received allocations from the revolving fund three times in the program’s 25-year history, arguing the city has only applied for the funds those three times. Jackson, he added, did not apply for state’s revolving funds in FY 2022.

“There is no factual basis whatsoever to suggest that there has been an ‘underinvestment’ in (Jackson) or that it received disproportionately less than any other area of the state,” the letter reads.

Mississippi caps forgiveness for those loans, though, at $500,000, a limit Reps. Thompson and Maloney called “arbitrary.” Reeves responded that the cap is set to ensure that forgiveness is available to “as many ‘disadvantaged communities’ as possible.”

The governor’s letter also responded to the question over the extra oversight state lawmakers required for funds going to Jackson. A bill from last session, HB 1031, required that money going to the city be placed in a special fund that’s overseen by the Mississippi Department of Finance and Administration. Reeves didn’t argue the merit of the extra requirement, only mentioning that all of the Legislature’s Democratic and Black members supported the bill.

The questions over state support to Jackson follow a history of Mississippi lawmakers putting up obstacles for the city to access needed infrastructure funding.

In 2021, lawmakers killed a proposal from the city to allow city voters to decide whether to levy an additional, citywide 1-cent sales tax increase for water and sewerage repairs. Also in 2021, the city of Jackson unsuccessfully lobbied lawmakers for $47 million in funding for drinking water improvements. The Jackson City Council also requested another $60 million to build new water tanks. With the state relatively flush with cash, lawmakers approved spending $356 million in projects statewide, but earmarked only $3 million for Jackson.

The post Reeves tells Congress that state hasn’t blocked funding to Jackson appeared first on Mississippi Today.

More than a century before failing infrastructure left Jackson, Mississippi, without running water this summer, thousands of the capital city’s residents gathered in a park downtown to celebrate the new water filtration plant that promised to turn the muddy liquid flowing into people’s taps into “clean, pure water.”

People poured in from nearby schools and factories to witness history that morning in November 1914, according to the account in the Jackson Daily News. 

Train whistles blew, cheerleaders carried large banners, and city leaders spoke from a stage decorated with flags, pennants and bunting.

“Our historic capital city has many causes for congratulation,” said Edgar S. Wilson, a prominent and politically connected businessman who presided over the event, “but clear water is her crowning glory, her greatest asset; a blessing that will pass from generation to generation.”

Today, Jackson’s water system is a symbol of national embarrassment, highlighted by this August’s crisis that deprived more than 170,000 people of water to drink, wash or flush toilets.

It was the latest in a series of water-related problems plaguing the state’s biggest city. They include frequent line breaks, shut-offs, boil-water notices and an ongoing exposure to toxic lead and harmful bacteria. Jackson consistently has been in violation of safe drinking water standards since at least 2018 and has been under a federal order since 2020 to fix a host of issues impacting its water system. A 2013 consent decree Jackson entered with state and federal agencies requiring it to fix its beleaguered wastewater system also remains in effect.

Even now, the system continues to teeter on the brink of failure. It strained to meet the demand of an additional 55,000 people who attended Jackson State University’s homecoming game against Campbell University on Oct. 22. An even larger crowd is expected Saturday for JSU’s game against Southern University with ESPN’s “College GameDay” in town. Residents were warned on Monday that this could again push the water system to the limit and were urged to ration water usage.

State officials have blamed leaders of the predominantly Black city for fiscal mismanagement and neglect. Republican Gov. Tate Reeves in a recent statement called the situation “a crisis of incompetence” and pointed a finger directly at Jackson’s mayor.

City leaders, meanwhile, accuse state officials of the predominantly white legislative and executive branches of ignoring their cries for help. Democratic Jackson Mayor Chokwe Antar Lumumba during an interview earlier this year with Mississippi Today called state lawmakers’ attitudes toward Jackson “paternalistic” and “racist.” During a press conference in September, he told residents not to trust the state.

But a USA TODAY Network investigation reveals that the foundation for these current failures was laid decades ago and problems compounded as the city evolved. Since then, city leaders and state officials alike have abandoned civility in lieu of finger pointing and steered the system into a collision course with disaster. 

Reporters combed through more than a century of newspaper archives, decades of the city’s annual financial statements, water quality reports and studies of the municipal system over the years, as well as recent lawsuits and orders against the city for violating drinking water standards. They also interviewed more than a dozen residents, city and state officials and former workers of the water system who shared firsthand knowledge of the problems. 

The reporting found a complex story of population decline, poverty, racism, politics, mismanagement and theft. But key details emerged that, when pieced together, paint a portrait of a water system that was flawed from the start and worsened exponentially over the years as those in power seemingly lost control. 

The system was cobbled together over the course of several administrations into a needlessly complicated operation with several moving parts. Complaints about bad water were rampant early on, and the system, unlike most Mississippi communities, relies mostly on surface water instead of cleaner, simpler wells. 

Jackson now has some 1,000 miles of water mains and two treatment plants: the original one, named J.H. Fewell, that can draw up to 25 million gallons a day from the Pearl River; and another one that opened in 1993, named O.B. Curtis, that can draw twice as much from the manmade Ross Barnett Reservoir located northeast of the city. The O.B. Curtis plant uses two different types of filtration systems to treat the water – conventional and membrane, making it tricky to manage.

Further complicating things, Jackson also operates a small system of wells that rely on groundwater and serve about 16,000 customers in the southern part of the city and nearby Byram.

“Until someone disputes this, and no one has been able to, you have probably the most complex water treatment facility in the country,” Lumumba said at a community meeting last month.

The original plant and piping that was laid more than a century ago started reaching the end of their lifespans just as Jackson’s population began to decline and its wealthier white residents fled for the suburbs. By the time Jackson elected its first Black mayor in 1997, the system was already in desperate need of repair but lacked the customer base to afford the then-$300 million worth of improvements. 

The price tag for those and other improvements has ballooned over the years to an estimated $1 billion as one administration after the next postponed infrastructure projects amid a dwindling revenue stream. Although the city collected some $900 million from customers over the past two decades, it lost nearly a half billion dollars in unbilled and unpaid usage during the same time from rampant theft and a botched metering and billing system. 

Meanwhile, the city failed to keep its plants fully staffed and functionally operating, leading to a deterioration of water conditions. Jackson has racked up multiple state and federal drinking water violations in the past five years and, in 2020, got hit with an emergency order by the Environmental Protection Agency. It must now commit to costly improvements to remedy the problems but lacks the funds to do it. 

As Jackson struggles, state leaders have done little to help. Every year since at least 2018, Jackson has sought financial assistance from the Legislature to improve its water system. And every year, those bills have died in committee.

“We’re at a reckoning point,” said Leigh Terry, assistant professor of environmental engineering at The University of Alabama. “We’re going to see more of these cases come up if we don’t invest and do the maintenance needed to replace these pipes, and pump systems and everything that often gets neglected.”

Jackson’s water woes are extreme but not rare. They’re endemic of a problem plaguing cities from coast to coast, as failures from aging infrastructure outpace funding for improvements.

But Jackson’s residents are particularly hard hit. Nearly 84% of them are minorities, and one in four 1 in 4 lives in poverty. Many struggle to pay their bills, much less buy bottled water every time the system strains. 

“I can’t even count how many times we’ve been on boil-water notice with the main gaskets breaking and the pipes breaking in the wintertime,” said Evelyn Fletcher, a federal building inspector who moved to Jackson 13 years ago. “I feel that God allowed this situation to be exposed across America, and even other countries, so we could get the assistance that we really need. I feel like it was God’s timing because we’ve been going through it for a while.”

A fire that led to water

The state of Mississippi took its name from the mighty waterway slicing through the country, but it was the lesser-known Pearl River that gave rise to the state’s capital. 

Jackson was established as the seat of government in 1821 in part because of its proximity to the Pearl, which cuts down the center of the state. But it wasn’t until a fire threatened to consume the city’s business district six decades later that the river became its life force.

The 1884 blaze had left firefighters scrambling for water, so local leaders devised a plan to pump the Pearl. This would ensure a steady supply of water for drinking, bathing and fire protection. In April 1889, the “Water Works Co.” began operations, delivering “pure, healthful river water” through a network of underground pipes, according to newspaper archives.

But it was not without its problems. The untreated river water was subject to contamination from bacteria and pollutants. Sometimes it arrived in people’s homes full of mud.

Residents soon looked to artesian wells as a solution and, in 1910, voted to create a new system from these free-flowing underground springs. “We want artesian water,” a Jackson Daily News headline demanded that year. But, by 1912, the company hired to drill the wells could produce just 2.5 million gallons of water a day – not enough for the city’s 4 million gallon per day requirement. 

Jackson’s groundwater is limited because the city sits on top of an inactive volcano, which stunted the formation of the area’s underground aquifers as they developed over the eons. Because they formed on top of the existing volcano, they’re shallower and thinner than usual, said Bill Oakley, a geologist who worked for decades for the U.S. Geological Survey and still consults on well projects throughout Mississippi.

To reach the desired capacity would be costly, engineers said in 1912. It would mean drilling additional wells and maintaining gasoline engines or electric motors for pumping. This forced the city to consider two other options: either drawing ground water from shallow wells in nearby Rankin County or building a filtration plant to purify water from the Pearl River. 

The matter was decided in one afternoon in April 1913 when then-Mayor Swepson James Taylor and an ad-hoc commission of prominent citizens determined that “filtration of the Pearl river supply is Jackson’s only solution to the water problem,” according to an account from the Jackson Daily News.

Limited groundwater supplies forced their hand, Oakley said. But in choosing filtered river water, Jackson diverged from the path most Mississippi communities would take.

All but 15 of the more than 1,000 community water systems in Mississippi pull from ground sources, according to EPA records. Of those that use surface water, most purchase it from the Northeast Mississippi Regional Water Supply District, which draws water from the Tombigbee River.

Although it has its problems, groundwater from wells and aquifers is generally cleaner and easier to treat. It usually contains less bacteria and is of a higher and more consistent quality. By contrast, surface water from lakes, rivers and reservoirs can vary dramatically depending on where and when it’s collected, and it generally has more contaminants, sediments and debris to be filtered out. 

Memphis, Tennessee, which initially relied on the Wolf River as its primary source of drinking water, faced a similar dilemma as Jackson in the late 1800s, especially after a deadly outbreak of Yellow Fever that swept the region was linked to unsanitary water. But unlike Jackson, Memphis could tap into an abundant aquifer and continues to tout its clean water to this day. 

Memphis’ municipal water system has had no violations or enforcement actions in at least five years, EPA records show. Jackson, meanwhile, has 176 violation points and more than 70 enforcement actions during the same time period. 

As state and federal regulations over drinking water have stiffened over the decades, it has become more challenging to staff Jackson’s water system. It takes up to six years of training and a Class A certification to operate a surface water treatment plant, which requires someone onsite 24 hours a day. 

Jackson consistently has struggled to hire and retain enough operators to run its system. This stems from a combination of low wages, high training requirements and a dearth of other surface water systems from which to recruit talent. 

In choosing surface water, Jackson created for itself a host of challenges. But, in the view of Jason Barrett, associate extension professor with the Mississippi Water Resources Research Institute, 

Jackson’s decision was not a fatal flaw. Other cities – like Atlanta, Birmingham and Nashville – also pull from surface water sources without nearly the issues facing their Mississippi neighbor. 

“I don’t think Jackson’s issue is the quality of the source,” Barrett said. “I think Jackson’s problem is management.”

The rise and fall of a city

Jackson’s population, which hovered just above 21,000 when it opened its first filtration plant, continually swelled over the next few decades as it matured from a dusty river town to a bustling metropolis. 

More than 60,000 people called Jackson home by the start of the second World War, and the city was laying hundreds of miles of new pipes to accommodate the steady influx of households, schools and businesses. The filtration plant, which could pull just 4 million gallons of water a day from the Pearl River when it opened, was pumping up to twice that much by the mid-1940s.

Water quality problems and line breakages were common during those early years, newspaper records show, but it wasn’t until January 1944 that Jackson experienced its first widespread water loss. After a valve in the pumping station broke, the entire system shut down for two days and caused a panic among residents. 

“For 30 years, the Waterworks department has efficiently operated,” then-Mayor Walter A. Scott told the Clarion Ledger at the time. “It has never before been completely broken down or shut down as it was from Friday until Sunday at 3 p.m.”

It was a harbinger of things to come as the city’s population continued to grow, putting additional strain on an already aging system. The next three decades saw a series of annexations – including one in 1976 that was called the largest in state history – that more than doubled Jackson’s geographic footprint to some 120 square miles and boosted its population to over 200,000 people.

By 1979, the state Board of Health issued a grave warning that Jackson’s main surface water system was operating near capacity. The city should add no new homes or industries until fixing its “problem-ridden water treatment system,” according to a Clarion Ledger article at the time. 

“It is clearly evident that some of the water problems were inherited with city expansions,” the board said. “Other problems are due to continuing neglect of adequate operation and maintenance procedures and lack of adequate planning and foresight by city officials for many years.”

The public scolding led to the approval of $4.4 million in water infrastructure improvements the following year, but it was not enough.

Just as Jackson was making plans for the biggest expansion its water system had seen in decades – its second water treatment plant, the O.B. Curtis – its population and pocketbook was were about to shrink from the reverberations of societal upheaval that had started years earlier.

Mississippi, like many Southern states, went through a period of dramatic changes in the 1960s and 1970s as a system of legal white supremacy and violent oppression of Black people gave way to the expanding civil rights movement. The federal government struck down the separate-but-equal Jim Crow laws that defined the way of life across the South and forced the integration of public schools. 

Southerners largely balked at these changes. But in 1969, a U.S. Supreme Court decision finally forced Mississippi and other holdouts to begin desegregating. For Jackson municipal schools, the change came in 1970.

“Forty percent of the student body is gone overnight with desegregation in the city of Jackson,” said Robert Luckett, a historian at Jackson State University.  “Their parents are the political, social, economic, religious leaders of the state of Mississippi, and when they withdraw their children from the public schools – when they themselves withdraw from the city – you begin seeing almost immediately the subsequent withdrawal of support for all things Jackson.” 

White people, which had represented nearly two of every three  residents in 1960, accounted for just one in two by 1980 – and just one in six  by 2020. 

Their exodus coincided with sweeping new federal mandates. The Clean Water Act and the Safe Drinking Water Act, both passed in the 1970s, required most cities to invest in significant improvements to be able to comply with the strict new standards on testing and contaminant thresholds. 

Jackson was no exception, but not long after these rules kicked in, the federal government started to phase out its generous infrastructure grants in lieu of loans that municipalities would have to pay back. It was a double whammy for the capital city.

“I’m not sure you can point to any period in time and say, ‘this is when the problem occurred,’” former Mayor Harvey Johnson told USA TODAY in a recent interview. “But once the federal government took away its grant funding mechanism, that’s when local governments had to start relying on their own resources to get the job done. It especially hurt communities like Jackson with high incidents of poverty and low-income neighborhoods.”

Cozy relationship frays

Johnson was elected in 1997, and his ascension into office marked a historical milestone as the first time an African-American won the city’s mayor’s race. 

That distinction came with a new set of problems. Whatever cozy relationship might have existed between Jackson’s white mayors and the state’s majority white leadership was over now. Johnson and the Black mayors that came after him have faced skepticism and distrust when seeking financial aid for the struggling water system.

When the state approved a 1% sales tax for Jackson water improvements in 2009, lawmakers wouldn’t let the city control the funds. They instead created a nine-person commission outside the city’s purview to oversee and approve the tax fund’s expenditures. Johnson noted that the state placed no such restrictions on a similar sales tax for Tupelo, a majority white city in northeast Mississippi.

More recently, when Jackson received American Rescue Plan Act funds, the legislature singled out the city for extra oversight of its spending. And a bill that would have given Jackson an additional $42 million beyond what the ARPA rescue funds provided died in committee earlier this year.

State Sen. Hillman Frazier, a Democrat from Jackson who works with local leaders to represent Hinds County in the state house, said the lack of continuity in Jackson’s leadership has prevented the city from adopting a “long-term vision.”

“It takes more than a term to become familiar with the problems and how to address them and how to get the votes on the local level to pass it,” Frazier said.

And the plans that were in place often needed more money to actually be carried out, but lawmakers were hesitant to give Jackson more money after years of mismanagement.

Frazier said a popular sentiment in the capitol is, “Why should we send resources that they might squander?”

Reeves said in September the city doesn’t have a plan to fix its water woes and doubted it could be relied upon to provide one, echoing a sentiment that has rippled across the executive branch in recent weeks. In October, he issued a press release criticizing Lumumba’s handling of the water crisis and accusing him of acting in bad faith.

Lumumba disputed that he has no plan to fix the water system. During a September press conference, the mayor held up several documents outlining needed repairs and associated costs – documents he said he had previously shared with state elected officials. He also named previous Black mayors, including his father, who died in office in 2014, and said they, too, had tried to work with the state on this issue.

“The reality is that (former Mayor) Tony Yarber asked for money to deal with this issue. The reality is that my father asked for money to deal with this challenge,” Lumumba said. “I know that Mayor Harvey Johnson asked for money to deal with this challenge.”

USA TODAY Network reached out to both Reeves and Lumumba through their representatives, but neither was made available for comment.

Theft, broken promises and distrust

As the cost to fix Jackson’s problems climbs, the city’s utility revenues are in a freefall. 

Despite raising water and sewer rates several times in the past two decades, Jackson has struggled to generate enough revenue to keep the operation financially solvent. 

Part of the issue is its dwindling customer base. Jackson has lost utility sales as its population declines and major customers like schools and hospitals disconnect from the system in lieu of more stable sources of water like wells. 

But it’s also because of rampant theft by residents who altered meters and connections to avoid paying for water, as well as by city workers who circumvented the billing system and bribed customers to give them cash in exchange for wiping out their monthly bills. A pair of investigations, one launched in 2015 and the other in 2019, nabbed more than two dozen people in a scheme that then-Public Works Director Bob Miller called “the worst I’ve ever seen.” 

But perhaps the biggest culprit is a faulty water meter and billing system installed by German technology company Siemens as part of a $91 million contract signed in 2012. 

The meters didn’t link up to the billing system as promised, measured usage incorrectly and resulted in some customers getting overcharged while others didn’t get billed at all. The city sued Siemens and settled in 2020 for about $90 million, but Jackson is still reeling from the mess and doesn’t anticipate a resolution until late 2024.

“In my household, we have not gotten the bill in five months,” said Fletcher, the Jackson resident. “We’ve called to the city water department to ask about the bill, and they said, ‘Oh, we haven’t gotten you a bill yet.’ So we’re just holding our breath to see what five months of a bill will look like.”

Utility sales to customers, which in 2014 reached a peak of more than $69 million, fell to less than $48 million in 2020, the latest year for which data was available. 

Meanwhile, its accounts receivables — mainly unpaid water bills — continued to climb. In 2003, Jackson was owed some $6 million in unpaid bills. By 2020, that number reached nearly $55 million. Customers now owe the city more than they’ve paid.

“It’s kind of like the frog in the pot,” said Quentin Whitwell, who served on the Jackson City Council from 2011-2014. “You’re in water and don’t realize it’s boiling until it’s too late. My observation today is that, you know, it all came to that boiling point, and everybody was caught off guard.”

When the system finally snaps

As the city’s financial fortunes have faltered, so too has its ability to keep its water department fully staffed. Over the last two decades, former plant employees said, the institutional knowledge needed to operate a complex system such as Jackson’s was depleted as longtime workers became dissatisfied and left. 

Employment at the water plants became top heavy with managers who knew little about the operations, while experienced workers got squeezed out, said Ronald Gilbert, who started in 1995 as an operator at J.H. Fewell before moving to operation supervisor at O.B. Curtis. 

Gilbert said the system, which always struggled on a shoestring budget, started to strain in the late 1990s. By the time he left in 2005, he said, things were getting worse.

“Not enough money, natural age and loss of skilled people,” Gilbert said. “You put that together, and anything’s going to fail.”

Gilbert said that during his tenure, the city operated its water system with a crew of about 35 people. In January 2020, just seven people were working in the entire water department, city records show. 

The city council approved across-the-board pay raises for plant operators in November 2021. But the increase did not alleviate staffing concerns in the way city administrators had hoped.

Jackson’s water system now has so few operators that some are forced to work up to 75 hours a week without overtime pay just to cover all the shifts, and supervisors are taking on the extra load in addition to their managerial duties, according to an assessment of the city’s water system conducted earlier this year.

The staffing shortages have contributed to widespread failures, including the inability to routinely monitor and maintain the system to prevent pressure loss and water contamination, a fact seized upon by the Environmental Protection Agency during a February 2020 site visit to the facility amid ongoing concerns. 

Inspectors also found numerous leaks and line breaks – as many as five or six a day – leading to a loss of water pressure and requiring the city to issue boil-water notices. In just four years, the report noted, Jackson had sent out more than 750 such notices.

The EPA slapped Jackson with an emergency administrative order citing numerous problems, including inadequate staffing, high sediment levels and poor corrosion control, all of which put consumers’ health at risk. Jackson must now implement a comprehensive plan to address the issues, but it told the EPA it lacks the funds to make improvements. 

It wasn’t the first time the city has run afoul of safe drinking water regulations. In 2016, the Mississippi Department of Health notified Jackson that several of its water samples exceeded the maximum amount of allowable lead – 15 parts per billion. The state determined that the O.B. Curtis plant had a failing corrosion control system, which is supposed to prevent lead and copper in the pipes from dissolving into the drinking water.

Jackson was ordered to fix this problem, but it continues to rack up violations for non-compliance. According to a recent notice the city distributed to customers, from “2018 to 2022, we failed to consistently meet treatment technique requirements for our system which is a violation of the Lead and Copper Rule and a requirement of the City’s Optimized Corrosion Control Plan.”

In addition to increased state and federal oversight, the city also now faces a series of lawsuits from citizens claiming they’ve been poisoned by lead and plagued by water shutoffs. This summer’s crisis was just the latest to leave Jackson residents without water for long periods of time – they faced a similar scenario after a February 2021 ice storm deprived them of water for weeks.

The most recent of these lawsuits, filed in September, claimed Jackson leaders have long ignored the need to upgrade the system and could have avoided all of this had they just done their jobs.

“The people of Jackson, like all people in this country, deserve access to clean and safe water,” EPA Administrator Michael S. Regan said in a statement after meeting with Jackson officials in September. “They also deserve more than words – they need action.”

That the city’s water system would collapse amid finger-pointing and federal oversight was likely far from the minds of those who celebrated its first filtration plant that cold November day more than a century ago.

But at least one person there felt the occasion held a lesson for future Jacksonians. Speaking to the crowd of how the city put aside differing opinions and rallied around the plan to filter river water, then-City Attorney William Hemingway called the plant a “monument to harmony and unity of purpose.” He said it should remind people of the value of working together.

“And if at any time discord comes among us,” Hemingway said, “let us look to this matter and give up personal matters for the common good.”

This story was produced in partnership with the Community Foundation for Mississippi’s local news collaborative, which is independently funded in part by Microsoft Corp. The collaborative includes  the Clarion Ledger, Mississippi Today, MCIR, the Jackson Advocate, Jackson State University and Mississippi Public Broadcasting.

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WEBB — Marquitrice Mangham didn’t just want to create the grocery store her hometown desperately needed. She wanted to bolster the Delta’s long-struggling food system. 

Enter Farmacy Marketplace: A neighborhood grocer that isn’t just the first store in decades to offer Webb shoppers fresh meat and produce, but also a steady marketplace for small-scale farmers to sell their crops. 

“A huge amount of food waste goes on in the Delta because everything is so sparsely populated,” said Mangham, who heads the nonprofit that runs the new Tallahatchie County grocery store. “No supermarket business is going to contract you to buy 20 pounds of tomatoes every couple weeks.” 

But the Farmacy Marketplace can, giving the region’s struggling small-scale farmers a more reliable income and the people of Webb access to produce without driving a half-hour to the nearest grocery store. 

The Mississippi Delta may be known for its fertile soil, but its major farm operations largely grow soy and corn for animal feed rather than produce the food the region’s population actually eats. There are few industries and jobs outside of agriculture. In most Delta counties, the poverty rate is between 30%-40%. 

The Delta is also covered with what the U.S. Department of Agriculture calls rural food deserts: low-income tracts where a third of the population lives more than 20 miles from the nearest large grocer. Mangham hopes what she’s creating at Farmacy Marketplace will become a model for other communities. 

Webb is home to just under 400 people and is 97% Black, according to the latest Census data. Before Farmacy, shoppers seeking poultry, steak, fresh fruit and veggies needed to drive 25 miles to Walmart in Clarksdale or 18 miles to SuperValu in Charleston.

“It saves people money and instead of investing in gas, they are able to purchase more groceries,” said Webb Mayor Michael Plez. 

The new store is in the heart of the town’s Main Street, meaning many citizens can walk to go shopping. 

Clad in a green apron and wide smile, Mangham’s mother is one of the store’s workers. The community has rallied around the store, desperate for it to be successful and volunteering their time so their neighbors have a reliable place to purchase healthy food. 

Mangham lives in Atlanta part-time and is regularly in Webb to manage the shop and run a 150-acre family farm. Her nonprofit, In Her Shoes, aids women experiencing homelessness in Georgia and offers farm training in Mississippi. The shop is operated under the nonprofit using USDA grant funds. 

Farmacy Marketplace had its soft opening on Oct. 7 — timing that couldn’t have been better. The local Dollar General, which may not have had fresh food but plenty of essentials, burned down the week before.

Dollar General said in a statement it was still assessing the store’s future. Mangham has added more household essentials to the store’s inventory to help make up for the loss of the community’s only major retailer.

Feeding America, a national food bank organization, reported that 31% of Tallahatchie County’s Black community was food insecure in 2020, the latest data available. That rate measures access to food between finances, transportation and physical grocery stores. 

The easiest food to get in Webb — before Farmacy opened — was frozen dinners or pizzas, chips and candy. 

Mangham’s vision isn’t only about giving Delta communities a more reliable food system and economy, but also making them healthier with access to unprocessed, nutrient-dense foods.

On a recent Friday afternoon, Demetrice Starks, 54, was browsing the new grocery store with her 86-year-old mother. Starks grew up in the area and now lives in Memphis. She hadn’t been to a neighborhood grocery like Farmacy in the area since she was a child. They had all closed up as people moved out. 

Much of Webb’s population is aging, and it gives Starks peace of mind that her mother no longer has to drive so far to get items for supper. 

“It’s a symbolism of growth and rebuilding the community,” Starks said. “It’s helping bring some type of stability.” 

Lonzell Wright is in and out of the shop regularly, able to easily get supplies for his burger-and-fries restaurant called Zell’s that’s down the street. When Plez, the mayor, has a taste for steak, he can just walk a few minutes to the store and buy what needs that night for dinner. 

“Since the day it opened it has been a blessing to the community,” said Plez. 

Mangham has other goals in mind: a local poultry processing facility Delta farmers can use so the store’s poultry is coming from the community and further creating jobs. She’s busy writing proposals for more grants. 

She is partnering with a nearby community college’s workforce training program so students can get retail job experience at the store, earning $10 an hour. There are three participants so far.

The store is open seven days a week. On Nov. 1, it began accepting Electronic Benefit Transfers, or EBT payments, for those on food benefits. It’s another big step that will help the community, Mangham said.

People want to shop and work where they live. It’s simple, yet not the norm across the Delta’s rural towns. People want to see the program succeed, she said.

It’s not just a grocery store; it’s the town’s quality of life. 

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Four congressional races and a bevy of local judicial elections throughout the state will be on the ballot Tuesday for Mississippi voters. Polls will be open from 7 a.m. until 7 p.m.

The 2022 mid-term elections have been closely watched nationally as Republicans try to wrestle control of the U.S. House and Senate from Democrats. In many states, early voting turnout has been high.

But that is not the case in Mississippi, where no U.S. Senate race will occur and where all four U.S. House races are expected to be won by incumbents or major party favorites. According to data from Secretary of State Michael Watson’s office, the number of absentee ballots requested and returned in Mississippi has been low compared to past elections.

As of Monday morning, according to Watson’s office, 51,849 absentee ballots had been requested and 46,120 had been completed and returned. During the same period in 2020, 248,335 absentee ballots had been requested and 231,031 had been returned to local election officials.

Unlike a vast majority of states, Mississippi does not allow no-excuse early voting. In Mississippi, those over the age of 65, people who are disabled and those who will be traveling on Election Day can vote early in their local circuit clerk’s office or by mail. But those voting by mail must, in many cases, obtain two notary public signatures to complete the process.

Mail ballots must be postmarked by Election Day and returned to the local circuit clerk’s office within five days of the election.

The incumbents in the four congressional races are all heavy favorites to win re-election.

Mississippi congressional races

• 1st District incumbent Republican Trent Kelly faces Democrat Dianne Dodson Black, an Olive Branch small business owner. She is the first African American woman to serve as a major party nominee in the district in the modern era. Kelly, a former district attorney in northeast Mississippi, was first elected in a 2015 special election.

• 2nd District incumbent Democrat Bennie Thompson faces Republican Brian Flowers of Clinton. Flowers, a Navy veteran, works in mechanical planning at the Grand Gulf Nuclear Power Plant near Port Gibson. Thompson is Mississippi’s longest serving U.S. House member and chairs the Homeland Security Committee and the special committee that is looking at efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election results.

• 3rd District incumbent Republican Michael Guest, a former district attorney in Madison and Rankin counties, is being challenged by Democrat Shuwaski Young of Neshoba County. Young is running for office for the first time, but has experience working in the Mississippi Secretary of State’s office and in the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. Guest was first elected in 2018.

• Republican Mike Ezell faces off against Democrat Johnny DuPree in the 4th District. Libertarian Alden Patrick Johnson also is on the ballot. Ezell, the sheriff of Jackson County, defeated incumbent Republican Rep. Steven Palazzo earlier this year in the GOP primary. DuPree, former mayor of Hattiesburg, has also run unsuccessfully for governor and secretary of state. In 2011, DuPree became the first African American major party nominee for governor.

The ballot also will include judicial races. Four Mississippi Court of Appeals races are on the ballot. In the only contested Court of Appeals race, incumbent 4th District Judge Virginia Carlton is being challenged by Bruce Burton.

READ MORE: Young confident in 3rd District U.S House seat despite incumbent Guest being heavy favorite

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