Democrat Mike Espy is challenging Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith this November.
Two months from Election Day during one of the most uncertain political moments in American history, we asked top Mississippi politicos to share their thoughts on the 2020 U.S. Senate race between Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith and Mike Espy.
Click on the names of political experts below to read more about what they think of the 2020 Senate race.
STUART STEVENS, best-selling author and longtime Republican political consultant who has been a top strategist for numerous presidential and congressional campaigns.
“I would think it would be a true statement to say that Mike Espy is in the business of getting votes,” Stevens said. “Cindy Hyde-Smith is in the business of not losing votes. I would much rather be in the business of getting votes.”
PAM SHAW, a longtime strategist who has focused her career in Mississippi politics on reaching and turning out Black voters.
“If you’re a Democrat, you can always count on older Black folk to show up,” Shaw said. “But you can’t count on them to show up during this pandemic. I know older Black people who haven’t missed a vote in many, many cycles who have not been out of their house since March. That has to be a very real concern (for Espy).”
HENRY BARBOUR, a longtime Republican strategist for national and statewide candidates and Mississippi Republican national committeeman.
“I tend to think that Trump voters are more likely to turn out in Mississippi than the folks wanting to beat Trump,” Barbour said. “I think that Cindy Hyde-Smith has an advantage there that she’ll get to ride with a big presidential turnout.”
MARVIN KING, associate professor of political science at the University of Mississippi.
“I think (Hyde-Smith’s) strategy of laying low is safe because she had some major gaffes in 2018,” King said. “As long as you’re polling ahead, despite not raising as much money recently, and as long as Trump is polling ahead, she can just say, ‘I’m a Trump Republican.’ That might be all she needs to do or say. My guess is her advisers know that.”
NATHAN SHRADER, chair of the Department of Government and Politics at Millsaps College.
“That has been my past impression of (Hyde-Smith’s) strategy, to ride on the coattails of the president,” Shrader said. “Think back to the special election in 2018 – Donald Trump’s visit. Part of his rhetoric was pretend I’m on the ballot when you go to vote for Cindy. Now she doesn’t have to rely on pretending he’s on the ballot.”
D’ANDRA OREY, professor of political science at Jackson State University.
“The aftermath of George Floyd’s death has illuminated stark racial, social and economic disparities that grossly impact African Americans,” Orey said. “Those viewing race relations through a more conservative lens may have framed the violence that has taken place as ‘riots’ and ‘looting’ being conducted by ‘thugs.’ These voters will be more attracted to law and order campaign messages.”
MARTY WISEMAN, longtime Mississippi politico and professor at Mississippi State University.
“I think Espy has got a shot, but everything has to fall perfectly,” Wiseman said. “People would have to turn out to vote who probably haven’t turned out to vote since the Obama races in ’08 and ’12.”
Editor’s note: We asked several Mississippi politicos, two months from Election Day, to share their thoughts on the 2020 U.S. Senate race between Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith and Mike Espy. Click here to return to the list of expert opinions.
Stuart Stevens, a Jackson native, is a best-selling author and longtime Republican political consultant who has been a top strategist for numerous presidential and congressional campaigns.
His most recent book, “It Was All a Lie: How the Republican Party Became Donald Trump,” released on Aug. 4 and became an instant New York Times best-seller.
Stevens said Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith’s campaign tactic of riding Trump’s coattails to re-election might be a losing one, even in red Mississippi, given the current political and social climate.
Stuart Stevens
“It’s a terrible environment for any incumbent,” Stevens said. “… It’s like a lot of things in life, it works until it doesn’t. (Hyde-Smith) is an accidental candidate who never had much support. She wasn’t elected on an issue or because she campaigned hard. She hasn’t, as far as I know, been identified with any particular issue.
“I would think it would be a true statement to say that Mike Espy is in the business of getting votes,” Stevens said. “Cindy Hyde-Smith is in the business of not losing votes. I would much rather be in the business of getting votes.”
“Mississippi voted to take down the state flag, and Donald Trump is out there defending the Confederate flag,” Stevens said. “I think he has a complete wrong read of the political moment … Sure, things are changing. The average white teenager in Mississippi would a lot rather be a Black rap star than be Robert E. Lee. We are seeing a complete misreading of cultural change.”
Stevens continued: “(Espy) is a better candidate, and at a certain point that matters. I think it has to be, look, if you woke up in the middle of the night and had the worst economy ever in the history of our country, more Mississippians out of work this August than ever in our history – how do you think the incumbent is doing?”
Click here to return to the list of expert opinions.
Editor’s note: We asked several Mississippi politicos, two months from Election Day, to share their thoughts on the 2020 U.S. Senate race between Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith and Mike Espy. Click here to return to the list of expert opinions.
Longtime strategist Pam Shaw has focused her career in Mississippi politics on reaching and turning out Black voters.
Shaw, who has worked several high-profile statewide races in recent years, said the pandemic could create a problem for Espy, who needs near historic Black turnout to win.
Pam Shaw
“I actually think white people don’t take COVID as seriously as Black people, so they will show up because they don’t have the fear that I know lots of Black folk have about it,” Shaw said. “If you’re a Democrat, you can always count on older Black folk to show up. But you can’t count on them to show up during this pandemic. I know older Black people who haven’t missed a vote in many, many cycles who have not been out of their houses since March. That has to be a very real concern (for Espy).”
Shaw said that the unprecedented nature of 2020 — the national Black Lives Matter movement that’s spurring social and policy change, the coronavirus pandemic and the economic uncertainty the pandemic has caused — is drawing even inactive voters to the political process. That should, Shaw argues, benefit Espy and other Democrats around the nation.
But she worries what another spike in COVID-19 cases might mean for turnout in November.
“I think a lot of people who aren’t necessarily politically active are trying to figure out how to vote and are talking about voting,” Shaw said. “The Democratic convention was inspiring. All of that’s great and very real right now. But the problem for Democrats is how do you turn them out? There is definitely a sensitivity with the whole alignment of everything happening right now. If the (virus) numbers go down, I think people will take their chairs and their food and be prepared to sit in line to vote. But if there’s any kind of red alert, I just don’t know.”
Speaking more generally, Shaw said the pandemic has given consultants fits as they think about how to reach voters.
“Mike is playing to increase his margins with Black voters, and I think that strategy is smart,” Shaw said. “If he can get the base out, I think he’s got a real shot.”
She continued: “On the other hand, Cindy Hyde-Smith is lukewarm. There aren’t a lot of people who feel strongly about her one way or another. If there are enough Republicans who sit this election out because they’re unhappy their party is being remade in Trump’s image or because they just don’t care about Cindy, this could get interesting.”
Click here to return to the list of expert opinions.
Editor’s note: We asked several Mississippi politicos, two months from Election Day, to share their thoughts on the 2020 U.S. Senate race between Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith and Mike Espy. Click here to return to the list of expert opinions.
Henry Barbour, longtime Republican strategist and Mississippi Republican national committeeman, drew parallels between the Cindy Hyde-Smith and Joe Biden campaigns.
On the national level, the Biden campaign appears to be keeping a low profile, riding a perceived lead, and the pandemic is robbing Trump of the large crowds and rallies his campaign feeds on.
Henry Barbour
“I definitely think the school of thought with Biden is the same thing going on in Cindy Hyde-Smith world: Let’s lay low, we have a lead,” Barbour said. “That’s a tried and true strategy. If you’re winning, keep your head down. That’s the same reason that Thad Cochran didn’t debate Chris McDaniel in 2014. Why do it? Don’t give your opponent that platform.”
A recent Espy internal poll had Black turnout at 35% — a really high number, at least five points high — with the Hyde-Smith lead likely to be more like 10 points, Barbour said.
“I tend to think that Trump voters are more likely to turn out in Mississippi than the folks wanting to beat Trump,” Barbour said. “I think that Cindy Hyde-Smith has an advantage there that she’ll get to ride with a big presidential turnout.”
The Mississippi flag issue was whether or not to keep old flag — that’s been decided, so it’s not likely to be a big driver of turnout, Barbour said.
“I think this will be a big turnout because it’s a referendum on Donald Trump and how the country is doing. I think that is going to help Cindy Hyde-Smith. George Floyd, the protests, that will help Mike Espy, but I think Democratic voters in Mississippi know that Donald Trump will win Mississippi, so it’s a little hard to get low-propensity voters to show up on the Democratic side.”
Click here to return to the list of expert opinions.
Editor’s note: We asked several Mississippi politicos, two months from Election Day, to share their thoughts on the 2020 U.S. Senate race between Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith and Mike Espy. Click here to return to the list of expert opinions.
Marvin King, associate professor of political science at the University of Mississippi, knows Mike Espy needs to win over moderate voters to win the election.
King said the notion of seeing a massive wave of moderate voters who voted for Trump in 2016 who will decide to vote for Espy in 2020 — or even Trump 2020 voters who also cast a vote for Espy on the same ballot — is tough to conceptualize.
Marvin King
“I don’t know if there’s enough split-ticket voters,” King said. “If you’re in Mississippi and you want to vote for Trump, you sure as hell need him to hold onto the Senate. If Trump wins and Democrats take control of the Senate, much of Trump’s power is stripped and his presidency is weakened. For that reason, I just wonder if there are enough defectors.”
“I do almost wonder if Espy could make inroads, even great inroads, with suburban voters on the flag,” King continued. “He could say, ‘Let’s go vote for this new flag. Doesn’t matter which one.’ If Cindy Hyde-Smith were to say that, it would not come off as credible. So there are different ways to mobilize different voters. For some of those suburban voters who are sympathetic to Black Lives Matter, that might be a way of tying these things together in a way that gets more voters to come out.”
King also said he wonders if Joe Biden’s pick of Kamala Harris for vice president will energize Black voters in Mississippi to turn out in droves. Harris would be the first Black and Indian American vice president in the nation’s history. King pointed to 2008, when Democrat Travis Childers was elected to the U.S. Congress in Mississippi’s first congressional district, riding the historically high Black turnout that President Barack Obama garnered.
“Being the presidential year, Espy may make some of that Travis Childers magic. That’s a term I never thought I’d use seriously, but I think it’s possible,” King said. “Is there a chance Kamala Harris will get more Black voters out? I don’t think it’ll be to the level of Obama, but it’ll be higher than Clinton (in 2016). So if Mike Espy gets an extra 80,000-90,000 African American voters to turn out, maybe that gets him within striking distance.”
But in the end, King said he believes Hyde-Smith’s ties with Trump may be all she needs to win.
“I think her strategy of laying low is safe because she had some major gaffes in 2018,” King said. “As long as you’re polling ahead, despite not raising as much money recently, and as long as Trump is polling ahead, she can just say, ‘I’m a Trump Republican.’ That might be all she needs to do or say. My guess is her advisers know that.”
“But with that strategy, there’s just nothing for voters,” King continued. “I can see why folks might disengage from the political process. If you’re in a state like Mississippi with the same outcome all the time, you just throw your hands up and say, ‘What’s the point?’”
Click here to return to the list of expert opinions.
Editor’s note: We asked several Mississippi politicos, two months from Election Day, to share their thoughts on the 2020 U.S. Senate race between Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith and Mike Espy. Click here to return to the list of expert opinions.
D’Andra Orey, professor of political science at Jackson State University, said the success of Espy’s focus on race during the 2020 Senate election, as the national Black Lives Matter movement rages on, could “depend on which narrative voters subscribe to.”
D’Andra Orey
“Given the current racial climate in America, (Espy and Hyde-Smith) enter the contest where race is already a salient issue, so neither of the candidates will be forced to incorporate such language while on the stump,” Orey said. “I do expect, however, each of the candidates to use such language when speaking to their base. For example, it will be impossible for Espy to speak to his base without mentioning race-specific issues such as the deaths of George Floyd or Breonna Taylor. Hyde-Smith, on the other hand, will be expected to mention the protests as a need for law and order.”
Orey said much of what has occurred following the police shootings of George Floyd in Minnesota and Breonna Taylor in Kentucky has been framed differently by people with different political ideals.
“On the one hand, some may see George Floyd’s death as a blatant disregard for human life,” Orey said. “It is very hard to justify his death based on what has been shown to the public. They also frame the protests as uprisings as opposed to rioting. They view these protests very similar to how the framers viewed the Boston Tea Party and the inescapable violence during the American Revolution.”
Orey continued: “But the aftermath of Floyd’s death has also illuminated stark racial, social and economic disparities that grossly impact African Americans. Those viewing race relations through a more conservative lens may have framed the violence that has taken place as ‘riots’ and ‘looting’ being conducted by ‘thugs.’ These voters will be more attracted to law and order campaign messages.”
Click here to return to the list of expert opinions.
Most Mississippi small businesses have yet to see COVID-19 relief grants from the government. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)
Like thousands of others, Oxford small business owner Kate Rosson is trying to keep afloat amid the pandemic while waiting on a Mississippi Back to Business grant.
“This whole Back to Business name is a joke if there are no businesses to get back to,” Rosson said on Monday. Seven weeks after applying, Rosson said she has received scant info about her application, and she deals with numerous other small businesses in the same boat.
“These businesses — I’m seeing them close, seeing plenty of them close every week,” Rosson said. “… I don’t run the chamber of commerce or anything, but I’d venture conservatively we could see 20-30% close in Oxford if we don’t see something happen.”
Mississippi, like most other states, is trying to use some of its federal COVID-19 aid money to help small businesses. The Legislature in May passed measures to provide emergency small business grants, and the program commenced June 11.
But getting that money out to the businesses has been a slow process. As of Aug. 28, less than 8% of the $240 million allocated to the Back to Business program had been approved for grants, and that’s after a major spike in approvals late last week. As of early August, only about 1% of the money had been distributed.
A Hope Policy Institute analysis in mid-August found that Mississippi was lagging behind most other Southern states in deploying CARES Act funds to small businesses, despite having another program designed to rapidly provide $2,000 emergency grants automatically to businesses shuttered during mandated shutdowns early in the pandemic. And Mississippi’s average relief amount at the time — $1,884 — was below the other states, such as Alabama at an average of $12,184.
Lawmakers in mid-August returned to Jackson and made changes to the program, relaxing qualifications and increasing potential payments in efforts to speed up the process and help more businesses amid the pandemic.
The Mississippi Development Authority, charged with running the Back to Business grant program — using a private contractor — vows to move more rapidly.
“While the review process is time-consuming, we are currently reviewing approximately 600 applications per day and issuing payments as soon as possible,” said MDA Director John Rounsaville. “In fact (Friday) we’ve processed 1,076 payments. MDA is committed to closing out the Back to Business grants by the end of September, and we are on track to accomplish that.”
Gov. Tate Reeves on Monday said administration of the grants “has been somewhat constrained by U.S. Treasury guidelines and somewhat by language the Legislature passed.” He said tweaks the Legislature made at MDA’s request should help and, “I think we will start seeing more progress.”
Rosson worries the program will move too slowly to help businesses in most dire need.
Rosson’s company, 662 Marketing, advertises and direct-markets college town small businesses’ services to parents of students, including in Oxford and Starkville. She’s dependent on universities and on fellow small businesses, both hit hard by the pandemic.
Rosson applied for a Back to Business grant on July 9. Weeks later, trying to get an update on her status, the only response she got was that it was “under review.”
Then on Friday, seven weeks after she applied, she got a “robo-email” telling her the state could not locate records of her filing and paying taxes — a prerequisite for the grant.
“I’ve paid all my taxes, on time,” Rosson said. “I’m sending them the attachments. I’ve got them digital and printed. I don’t know why they could not find them.”
Rosson said she has been forced to lay off two of her six employees.
“If this money doesn’t come we’re going to have to make more changes,” Rosson said, “and I’ve got to stare down what does four months from now look like.”
One, funded at $60 million, was to automatically and quickly provide $2,000 grants — no application necessary — to more than 29,000 shops shuttered temporarily during a statewide shutdown mandated early in the pandemic. The state Department of Revenue was to send out the checks to a long list of small businesses including restaurants, barber shops and clothing stores.
But as of Aug. 28, DOR reported that it had issued only 14,106 grants totaling $28.2 million.
Lawmakers in mid-August expanded the list of businesses eligible for the $2,000 emergency grants. But as of last week, less than half of that money been distributed.
The second program the Legislature funded, at $240 million, was the Back to Business grants. It allows for grants of up to $25,000 each to businesses with less than 50 employees for expenses — but not lost profits — during the pandemic.
Businesses could either apply for a minimum grant of $1,500, subsequently increased by the Legislature to $3,500, or they could itemize employees and/or costs to receive up to $25,000.
For the first 60 days of the program, $40 million was to be reserved for businesses owned by minorities and women. But the slow pace of the program, with less than 8% of the money out the door so far, has raised concerns that this priority will not be fulfilled as planned.
MDA late last week reported:
36,550 businesses registered for the program
21,066 have applied for grants
6,497 grants had been approved as of Aug. 28, for a total of $18.6 million
3,335 minority or women-owned grants had been approved, for a total of $9.5 million
3,162 non-minority grants had been approved, for a total of $9.1 million
1,578 businesses have been deemed non-eligible
70% of applicants, 14,802, requested the base payment of $3,500
‘It’s just been a hassle’
Some lawmakers have received calls and complaints from struggling businesses trying to get grants.
Eric J. Shelton/Mississippi Today, Report For America
Sen. Derrick T. Simmons during a corrections hearing Thursday, February 13, 2020.
Sen. Derrick Simmons, D-Greenville, said people contacting him report, “It’s just been a hassle.” He said he is particularly concerned that the priority of helping minority-owned businesses is falling by the wayside because of delays.
“I’m hearing there has just been no communication after the application is made,” Simmons said. “… time is ticking and there are so many businesses hurt by the pandemic. Small businesses are the heartbeat of our community and the intent of the Legislature was for this to be used quickly to help. These businesses started being hurt in March.”
House Ways and Means Chairman Trey Lamar, R-Senatobia, said MDA has assured him and other lawmakers that recent legislative changes will speed the program, and he said lawmakers might make subsequent changes if needed.
Lamar said he believes the grants could have been used to cover loss of revenue or profits for businesses, but he was unsuccessful in convincing his colleagues that federal regulations didn’t prevent that.
Senate Finance Chairman Josh Harkins, R-Flowood, in mid-August helped pass changes to the small business programs to speed them up and help more people. He said he’s hopeful things will speed up, but said the program, like the pandemic, is uncharted waters for the state and federal governments. Harkins also said the state has to carefully account for the spending, lest it have to repay the money to the federal government.
“I know people want it now, but you have to be realistic with the size and scope of this,” Harkins said. “There’s not really a playbook for what we’ve gone through, and I think we’ve tried to do a quick turnaround to stand this program up. But you have to have accountability, too, and we are on the hook for this if the inspector general comes in and finds something wrong … and Mississippi doesn’t have that money laying around to pay it back to the federal government if something is done wrong.”
One change that MDA requested to improve the grant program was denied by lawmakers. The agency asked to be allowed to increase administrative spending on the program from $900,000 to $3.6 million. This would allow MDA to “scale the call center” to more quickly help applicants, and to cover proper auditing of the program, Rounsaville said in a letter to legislative leaders.
Harkins said: “Everybody notoriously needs X amount to operate a program, but when it gets down to the lick log, not as much is needed. Let’s look at the actual costs. We can look at it later. The governor’s got some funds he can utilize if needed, and we can follow up with them if more is needed.”
Lt. Gov. Delbert Hosemann in a statement last week said he had met with MDA.
“They stated to me they would finish the allocation to every person or entity who applied within the next 30 days,” Hosemann said, adding that an issue of concern for him is “the lack of applications and the small size of the requests from employers.”
“I hope more employers will apply as soon as possible,” Hosemann said.
Keeping people employed
The grant programs for small businesses are set to run through Nov. 1, with any unspent money then going into the state’s unemployment trust fund.
Matty Bengloff, owner of Delta Dairy, an ice cream shop in Cleveland, applied for a Back to Business grant in mid-June and said his inquiries for months had basically been met with “radio silence.”
“Every time I’ve called, they’ve been incredibly kind and gracious on the other line, but just no answers or time frame — just, ‘it’s under review,’” Bengloff said.
But on Thursday, Bengloff said, he received an email with a link for him to follow and answer a few final questions and provide a few further details.
“Then it basically said something along the lines of thank you, you’ve been approved,” Bengloff said. “That’s great. Businesses need this help right now, and the state is providing us support so we can keep people employed and keep bringing in local tax dollars.”
