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All Mississippi colleges and universities would have to adopt comprehensive sexual assault response policies under a House bill called the “Sexual Assault Response for College Students Act.”

Mississippi is one of numerous states considering such legislation. The bill would require schools to adapt to new federal laws and policies to combat a major, often-ignored group of crimes. Mississippi schools now have a hodgepodge of sexual assault, domestic violence, dating violence, sexual exploitation and stalking policies. Some do relatively well, while others provide scant opportunity for survivors to report crimes or to get physical, mental and other help.

House Judiciary A Chairwoman Angela Cockerham, I-Magnolia, has introduced the bill year after year, only to see it die without a vote in the Senate. Cockerham has worked with student assault survivors, parents and university officials for years and hopes this year it will pass.

“Students have come to me … Parents have called me in tears,” Cockerham said. “… I don’t want to talk to another student about their experience – how they didn’t know who to call or where to get help. I just want to protect our students.”

The measure would also require school policies to define what consent to sex means – and when it cannot be given – and applies to rapes and assaults on and off campus.

“Currently, an American woman who attends college is more likely to be a victim of sexual assault that someone who doesn’t,” said Rep. Dana McLean, R-Columbus, a co-sponsor of the bill.

“College-aged women are twice as likely to be sexually assaulted than robbed,” McLean told House colleagues. “Law enforcement officials at 30% of institutions of higher education receive no training on how to respond to reports of sexual violence and 73% of institutions of higher education have no protocols on how the institution and law enforcement can work together to respond.”

The measure would require schools to adopt policies that adhere to federal and state laws, train staff and provide ways for people to confidentially report sexual assault. It would require the schools to provide support – physical and mental health services – and to publish policies and resources and make them known to students.

Cockerham said the measure would also improve reporting and tracking of sexual violence on campus. There is a dearth of such reporting and tracking nationwide and in Mississippi.

According to the Rape, Abuse and Incest National Network, over 26% of female undergraduates have experienced rape or sexual assault and nearly 6% of all students have experienced stalking since entering college. Yet, because of a lack of services or awareness or belief nothing would be done, only 20% of female student sexual assault survivors report the crimes to law enforcement.

Cockerham said the bill, providing some standardization of schools’ policies and law, would also help those falsely accused by providing better protocols for dealing with such reports.

The bill – which has passed committee and is now before the full House – would provide a consistent definition of sexual consent across universities that adheres to federal and state laws.

In the bill, consent is defined as “words or actions that show a voluntary agreement to sexual activity.” It also notes that that a lack of verbal or physical resistance or a person’s consent to past sexual activity does not constitute consent and a person can withdraw consent at any time.

The bill states consent cannot be given or implied if:
– The person is incapacitated due to use of alcohol or drugs
– The person is asleep or unconscious
– The person is under the age of consent
– The person is incapacitated due to a mental disability

The post College sexual assault bill back before lawmakers as a way to ‘protect our students’ appeared first on Mississippi Today.

Bill that strips the governor of control of the Department of Medicaid has a been released into the wild. Read more about it here.

The post Marshall Ramsey: Medicaid appeared first on Mississippi Today.

Officials said Monday they cannot say when teachers and first responders will be eligible to receive the COVID-19 vaccine, but they are next in line.

“I do believe our teachers and first responders are currently slated to go next,” said Gov. Tate Reeves, noting that the current group receiving vaccines contains the most vulnerable individuals. 

Reeves went on to say that currently, the “demand far exceeds the supply” and that there is no way to estimate how long the current phase will last before more Mississippians, including teachers, become eligible.  

Despite an original model from the Mississippi Department of Health that included teachers alongside individuals over 65-years-old, other essential workers, and those with certain pre-existing medical conditions, the vaccine is currently only available to health care workers, those above 65 and those with certain conditions in Mississippi. 

Health care workers and long-term care residents and staff were the first to become eligible to take the vaccine in early January. 

READ MORE: Frequently asked questions about COVID-19 vaccines in Mississippi

Some or all teachers are eligible to receive the coronavirus vaccine in at least 25 states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico, according to an Education Week analysis of official government communications and websites. 

The state health department reports more than 200,000 Mississippians, or about 7% of the state’s population, have received their first dose of the vaccine as of Feb. 1. 

Health experts, including State Health Officer Dr. Thomas Dobbs, have continually cautioned that vaccine rollout depends completely on the allotment of vaccines the state receives from the federal government.

“It’s unpredictable and limited,” Dobbs said of the state’s vaccine supply in a Jan. 22 video interview with LouAnn Woodward, vice chancellor at the University of Mississippi Medical Center. 

The post Teachers and first responders next in line for vaccine, officials say, though timing is unclear appeared first on Mississippi Today.

Magnolia physician Luke Lampton joins Marshall to talk about the pandemic, how it is changing health care and to give a doctor’s perspective on House Bill 1303, which is working its way through the Legislature (and is sponsored by Republican Reps. Donnie Scoggin, Dana Criswell and Steve Hopkins). HB 1303 changes the relationship between physicians assistants and nurse practitioners with doctors, who traditionally monitor their work. Lampton, a member of the Mississippi State Board of Health and Mississippi State Medical Association, gives his point of view on why the bill isn’t necessary. Here is a link to a video of Rep. Scoggin, who is a nurse practitioner, explaining his perspective on why it should pass. As technology, the pandemic and ever-increasing medical costs change the landscape of how medical care is delivered, this is an interesting discussion.

Read our full coverage of coronavirus in Mississippi and our daily case updates and data.

For more of Marshall’s Mississippi Zoom Tour, click here.

The post Marshall’s Mississippi Zoom Tour: Dr. Luke Lampton appeared first on Mississippi Today.

Medicaid, the state agency with the largest budget, will be removed from the control of the governor and placed under an independent commission under legislation that has cleared committee and is now before the Mississippi House.

“What we are doing with this bill right here is allowing some transparency, allowing some open meetings,” said Rep. Joey Hood, R-Ackerman, who explained the bill to members of the Appropriations Committee. The committee approved the legislation Tuesday.

Tuesday was the deadline for the bill to be passed out of committee in the chamber where the proposal originated. The full House will have until Feb. 11 to consider the proposal.

When asked about potential problems with the legislation that would make dramatic changes to the governance of the agency, Hood said, “There are problems, but we are going to work through those during the process.”

The bill was introduced by House Ways and Means Chair Trey Lamar, R-Senatobia, one of the more influential members of the House.

Gov. Tate Reeves said Tuesday he is not familiar with the legislation that could strip away a sizable amount of his authority in the area of health care, but said he would be updated on the proposal by his legislative team in the coming days.

“Entangling the Medicaid program in an ongoing political tug-of-war will not improve health outcomes for Medicaid recipients, elevate quality, lower spending trends, or reduce unnecessary burdens on patients and providers. We are concerned that Rep. Lamar’s legislation could threaten to hinder, if not completely undo, the significant progress that the Medicaid program has made in recent years,” said Drew Snyder, the current Medicaid executive director in a statement to Mississippi Today.

At times in recent years, Lamar and Reeves have been at odds over multiple issues, ranging from the source of funding for transportation needs to Reeves vetoing legislation to provide funds to help re-open a hospital in Lamar’s district. Reeves maintained it was improper to spend federal COVID-19 relief funds for the re-opening of the Tate County Hospital. Lamar and others argued spending the federal funds on the re-opening of the hospital during the pandemic was a proper expenditure of those dollars.

As far as the establishment of the Medicaid Commission, Lamar said it is his goal to bring more transparency to the $6 billion agency. The Medicaid Commission would be subject to open meetings requirements of state government. The agency under the direction of the governor does not have to conduct public meetings.

Some state agencies, such as the Department of Corrections, Human Services and Medicaid, are under the control of the governor. The executive directors of those agencies are appointed and terminated by the governor, though they must go through Senate confirmation.

Other agencies, such as the Board of Health and education from the kindergarten through university level, are governed by boards whose members are appointed by governors for staggered terms. In some instances the lieutenant governor and the speaker make appointments to those boards. The executive directors or heads of those agencies are answerable to the board or commission.

In terms of total funding, in both state funds and federal funds, Medicaid is the largest state agency with a budget of $6.61 billion for the current year. Both K-12 education and universities receive more than $3 billion in total funding from state and federal sources.

In essence, Lamar’s legislation is a back to the future proposal. The Legislature created the current Division of Medicaid, under the auspices of the governor, in the 1980s.

As part of a landmark 1983 state Supreme Court case, the old Medicaid Commission and multiple other boards and commissions were ruled to be in violation of the separation of powers clause of the Constitution because legislators were serving on executive agencies.

But the commission that was proposed in Lamar’s bill would consist of seven non-legislative members – four appointed by the lieutenant governor and three appointed by the governor. All seven members would face Senate confirmation.

Two of the lieutenant governor’s recommendations with be made upon advice from the speaker. The speaker constitutionally cannot make an appointment to the board in the executive agency since the speaker is in the legislative branch. The lieutenant governor is considered as part of the executive agency, though the position also has legislative responsibilities.

It is not clear how the process of the lieutenant governor making an appointment for the speaker would work.

Under the legislation, appointments to the commission would be made after July 1. But the legislation calls for Snyder to remain in place until January of 2024 when a new gubernatorial term begins. At that point, the Commission could choose to re-appoint Snyder, if he wanted to continue in the post, or select a new executive director.

The post Bill aims to strip authority over Medicaid from governor appeared first on Mississippi Today.

KOSCIUSKO — Dr. Tim Alford knew that Mississippians were struggling to get health care before he began working in the emergency room in this small town five years ago.

It’s far worse than he thought, said the longtime family physician and past president of the Mississippi State Medical Association. “People are not being able to get their primary care, so they default to the emergency room. People are flocking here because so many people are locked out of the system.”

More than one in five Mississippians don’t have health insurance, one of the highest percentages of uninsured in the U.S. The five highest are all Southern states, none of which has expanded Medicaid, except Oklahoma, where the expansion starts in July.

“The emergency room is the wrong place for people to get primary care,” Alford said. “It’s wrong in every way.”

For starters, there’s the cost. The same hospital services may run 10 times higher in an emergency room.

The relationship between a medical care provider and the patient is a key to good primary care, and that’s difficult in an emergency room, Alford said. “Emergency rooms have their place, but the operative word is ‘emergency’ and not primary care.”

When he knows a patient needs a follow-up visit with a doctor and that patient can’t pay for such care, he said, “I feel as if I am referring them into the eternal abyss.”

Each day at the emergency room, the people pour in, he said, many of them “the salt of the earth — teachers’ assistants, truck drivers, check-out cashiers, people you run into in a small town who don’t have an ability to pay a (monthly) premium.”

They don’t have the ability to pay huge medical bills, he said. The average patient hospitalized for COVID-19 gets slammed with a bill of more than $73,000.

It comes as no surprise then that Mississippi, the nation’s poorest state, has the highest number of people with past-due medical bills, 41%, nearly twice the national average.

So far, 38 states have expanded Medicaid, many of them creating their own version, including Indiana when Mike Pence was governor.

If Mississippi had followed Indiana’s lead, it would have added more than $1 billion a year to the state coffers, Alford said. “We have squandered billions away that could have saved lives and helped our economy. It’s a real tragedy for our state to see politics prevail over what is right and good.”

Insurance Commissioner Mike Chaney sees a health care crisis in Mississippi. “There are 30 to 35 hospitals that could close because they have no income,” he said.

Since 2014, five of the state’s 64 rural hospitals have closed their doors. Two-thirds of those that remain are losing money, with four of them filing for bankruptcy in 2018.

Arkansas, which did expand Medicaid, has seen one rural hospital close. In contrast, 52 rural hospitals closed in surrounding states over the past decade.

State Sen. John Horhn, D-Jackson, said holes in the state’s health care system are leaving rural hospitals and many Mississippians in danger. “We’re the sickest state in the country,” he said. “It’s a very calloused approach that we’re still taking.”

When talk arose of expanding Medicaid in 2014, the state economist told lawmakers the expansion would have a $9 billion impact on the economy and create at least 9,000 new jobs, he said, but then-Gov. Phil Bryant balked at the change.

Current Gov. Tate Reeves has also voiced his concern about rural hospitals, more than half now at risk of immediate closure.

“I am very concerned about access to health care in rural parts in Mississippi,” he told MCIR. “I think it’s critically important that we focus our conversation around not only affordability but accessibility to rural facilities around Mississippi.”

Despite this expressed concern, the Republican leader has rejected Medicaid expansion.

Alford said if Mississippi’s leaders would expand Medicaid, “it would really be a shot in the arm. It would save rural hospitals that are at the brink of closure.”

Overall, Mississippi hospitals have to pay more than $600 million a year for uncompensated care, according to the Mississippi Hospital Association. The association commissioned the Perryman Group, which concluded that Medicaid expansion would reduce these losses by more than $251 million.

Alvin Hoover, CEO of King’s Daughters Medical Center in Brookhaven, said expansion would cut his more than $12 million a year in bad debt in half.

Since the Affordable Care Act (also known as “Obamacare”) went into effect in 2013, “we’ve taken cut after cut from the federal government,” he said. “Back in the day, we’d have a 3 to 5% operating margin.”

A hospital needs at least a 3% margin to reinvest in expensive medical equipment to keep up to speed, he said. “Since 2013, it’s been tough to eke out a margin.”

Additional funds would make it possible for health care providers to do more preventative care, he said. “A lot more hospitals could make an impact in our communities.”

If Mississippi expanded Medicaid, the state would receive more than $1 billion a year, according to estimates. This money would make up the 90% the federal government is paying toward health care while the state would be responsible for the remaining 10%.

The governor cites the state’s cost to expand Medicaid, which he puts at $220 million a year, to justify his opposition. 

“With that amount of money, every teacher in the state could receive a $4,330 raise per year,” he said in his fiscal 2022 budget proposal. “We must work to find ways to provide healthcare for all Mississippians, especially in rural areas, but Medicaid expansion is not the answer.”

MississippiCares — which proponents say is modeled in part after what Pence did in Indiana — seeks to solve that objection by having hospitals and patients cover the state’s 10% through a tax on the hospitals and a $20 monthly premium for patients.

“If it worked with Indiana,” Hoover asked, “why can’t it work in Mississippi?”

Indiana has made many changes that differentiate it from the traditional Medicaid program, Hoover said. “The Pence plan is not Obamacare.”

Reeves said he has yet to see the MississippiCares proposal, but opposed it in general. “I’m not for Medicaid expansion,” he reiterated.

The Perryman study estimates MississippiCares would save lives, boost tax revenue more than $200 million over a decade and create more than 19,000 jobs. Mississippi’s unemployment rate topped 9% this past summer and has slowly edged downward, but a severe nursing shortage remains, with more than 1,000 jobs open.

Hob Bryan, chairman of the Senate Public Health and Welfare Committee, said supporters “sometimes overstate the economic benefits, which always worries me.” Opponents, however, “ignore them entirely,” he said. “It’s frustrating.” 

The Democrat from Amory said there is no doubt the change would save Mississippi “100 cents on the dollar to Medicaid, thereby saving 90 cents on the dollar. There is the additional state revenue, but there also is revenue for cities because of increased sales tax. Then, of course, there is the reduction in human suffering, if that counts for anything.”

The problem is not the cost, he said. “The problem is that the governor, and the (House) speaker, both are opposed to having any additional people receive health care if the government is involved.”

Leah Rupp Smith, deputy chief of staff for Republican Lt. Gov. Delbert Hosemann, said their office is “reviewing Senate bills and working with chairs to meet the committee deadline next week. We will review any legislation the House decides to send to the Senate.”

Chaney predicted that MississippiCares faces an uphill battle, first with state leaders and next with the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, which would have to grant a waiver to enable a hospital-owned health plan to manage it.

Richard Roberson, the association’s general counsel, disagreed. “Our understanding is that provider-led plans are viewed favorably by CMS,” he said, “but we have not presented our plan to them because that’s really the state’s role.”

Under the bill, Medicaid would provide 90% with the rest contributed through premiums and hospital taxes.

Asked what would happen if Medicaid stopped paying 90%, Roberson replied that the federal share cannot be lowered without the approval of Congress. “If the feds did reduce their share, the conditional language as we wrote it wouldn’t allow the state to continue to participate,” he said.

Asked if hospitals are willing to promise they are not simply passing on these costs to the consumers, Roberson replied, “The irony in that statement is that the costs of not insuring these individuals is already being passed along to the consumers. When a hospital is trying to meet its fixed operational costs and 10 to 15% of its patients pay nothing, who do you think pays more?”

Estimates put the amount that Mississippi has already forfeited for rejecting Medicaid expansion at about $7 billion. If the state continues to reject expansion, the state would forfeit another $13 billion, Chaney said.

Alford said if patients are being denied care when “an obvious solution to that denial is at hand, then that is just flat wrong.”

He fears that state leaders will continue to reject Medicaid expansion. “I’m afraid we’re going to be last again,” he said. “I do feel like the house of medicine abdicated its role in 2014, rather than holding up the torch and going in the right kind of direction.”

In 2016, members of the medical association voted to support expansion of health care coverage under the Affordable Care Act, but the association’s leaders didn’t push for expanding Medicaid coverage.

Dr. W. Mark Horne of Laurel, president of the Mississippi State Medical Association, said the organization of more than 5,000 physicians continues to support expanding access to healthcare in Mississippi. “We’re not saying Medicaid per se,” he said.

There is no question that more Mississippians need access to health care, he said. “We’re open to working with all parties that have similar goals. … Let’s find what we agree on.”

So what would increasing this access mean to Mississippians like Brianna Birdwell?

In March 2019, the nursing student from Batesville was taken off Mississippi’s Medicaid rolls because she turned 19. The timing couldn’t have been worse. She had just been diagnosed with diabetes.

As a result, she went uninsured for nearly two years, unable to afford the $1,000-a-month bill for insulin and supplies on her $8,000-a-year salary.

Except for the generosity of a local doctor who shared free samples of insulin, she never would have made it, she said. “Every single time I went, I thought, ‘What if she doesn’t give me my insulin?’”

The longer she went without health insurance, the more she wondered if she would have to drop out of nursing school, she said. Last month, she finally obtained health insurance through a job at the Panola Medical Center as a patient care assistant.

Expanding Medicaid would help many Mississippians “who fall in the cracks” like students who can only work part time, she said. “I could only make maybe $8,000 a year with the job I was at and with how heavy of a course load I took in college.”

Aside from “the insane costs of managing Type 1 diabetes without insurance, there’s the fact that anyone without insurance has to pay $100 or more just to be seen by a doctor, not including treatment or medicine,” she said. “This causes those without insurance to face possible long-term issues.”

This report was produced in partnership with the Community Foundation for Mississippi’s local news collaborative, which is independently funded in part by Microsoft Corp. The collaborative includes the Clarion Ledger, the Jackson Advocate, Jackson State University, Mississippi Center for Investigative Reporting, Mississippi Public Broadcasting and Mississippi Today.

The post Mississippi missed out on $7 billion when it did not expand Medicaid. Will that figure jump to $20 billion? appeared first on Mississippi Today.

Governor Tate Reeves is polling about as well as canker sores and toe fungus and I know people are asking who might run against him in three years — but let’s be honest; who would want the job?

READ: Will Gov. Tate Reeves, polling poorly after one year in office, draw a serious GOP challenger in 2023?

The post Marshall Ramsey: Running appeared first on Mississippi Today.

In 2020, Gov. Tate Reeves vetoed two criminal justice reform bills which would have provided parole eligibility for thousands of people in prison and helped them reenter society through workforce training programs.

The governor said last year’s measures — House Bill 658 and Senate Bill 2123 — were “well-intentioned” but “went too far.”

Between overcrowding, violence, an ongoing Department of Justice investigation and the coronavirus pandemic, Mississippi’s prison crisis still persists. If the Legislature doesn’t take action soon, the state is facing potential federal intervention. In Alabama, a similar prison crisis has resulted in taxpayers facing a $1 billion bill to meet federal mandates to fix the system.

In Mississippi, the Legislature is trying this year to pass new criminal justice reform measures to expand parole eligibility and reentry programs for people in the state’s prisons.

Rep. Kevin Horan, D-Grenada, authored two criminal justice reform bills currently moving through the Legislature — House Bill 525, the omnibus criminal justice reform bill, and House Bill 465, the Compassionate Parole Eligibility Act.

Horan, who is chair of the House Corrections Committee, said HB 525 primarily focuses on “reentry and programming of inmates prior to release and uniformity in parole,” particularly aiming to streamline the differences in parole eligibility for those who were convicted and sentenced before and after 1995.

“Prior to 1994, nearly everyone sentenced to prison in Mississippi was eligible for parole after serving 25% of their sentence or 10 years. In 1995, Mississippi joined the ranks of states who moved to abolish parole and mandate that everyone serve at least 85% of their sentence in prison,” according to a January 2021 report by FWD.us, a bipartisan criminal justice reform advocacy organization.

Horan said his legislation hopes to address this.

“I’m looking to make those individuals that have (parole) eligibility prior to ‘95 for those individuals after ‘95 to have the same or similar parole eligibility. That would be the goal, just like Senate Bill 2123 last year,” Horan said. “It treated everybody the same, and I think that’s a fair way to approach parole eligibility.”

Horan said his parole reform bill would incentivize good behavior for people in prison, considering they may have the opportunity for parole, but it would only impact people in prison convicted of certain offenses.

“(HB 525), like last year, won’t have any additional provisions allowing sex offenders or those convicted of capital murder to gain any type of consideration (for parole),” Horan said.

Horan’s other bill, HB 465 — the Compassionate Parole Eligibility Act — would allow people in prison who were not convicted of a sex offense, capital murder or sentenced to death to be eligible for parole if they have been diagnosed with a terminal illness and have a life expectancy of a year or less or are completely disabled. 

With over 17,000 people incarcerated in Mississippi, the state has the second-highest incarceration rate of all 50 states in the U.S., which is “due in large part to Mississippi’s parole laws, which are among the most restrictive in the nation,” according to the FWD.us report on parole in Mississippi.

The report also said the state’s prison population “more than doubled between 1994, the final year in which most people in prison were eligible for parole, and 2008.”

Today, more than 12,000 incarcerated Mississippians, or about two-thirds of the prison population, are not eligible for parole, according to FWD.us. 

Four of the 109 people who died in MDOC facilities last year — O.D. Washington, 74, Melvin Thomas, 66, Owen Nelson, 57, and Bobby Vance, 54 — would have been eligible for parole if the governor had not vetoed last year’s criminal justice reform measures, according to FWD.us.

“It’s heartbreaking because it didn’t have to be that way,” said Alesha Judkins, FWD.us Mississippi director for criminal justice reform. “I think the lesson learned is that what we’re doing right now isn’t working, and we can’t continue to do it at the expense of losing people’s lives.”

Tuesday is a deadline day at the Legislature and HB 465 — the Compassionate Parole Eligibility Act — hasn’t been taken up yet, meaning it will likely die in committee. But Horan told Mississippi Today some of what the bill entails would likely be folded into other criminal justice reform bills later in the session. 

“I haven’t decided that I will bring that out of committee yet because those code sections are in the omnibus bill, but as far as the compassionate care provisions, we’ve worked on language with the Senate,” Horan said. “Those policy positions regarding compassionate care release eligibility will be in the bill, but it may not be in the same form as (it is in HB 465).”

Judkins said expanding parole eligibility could restore a sense of hope for people in prison and their families, alluding to a possibility of decreased violence in Mississippi’s prisons.

“I think that’s a huge part because I feel like a lot of violence is from desperation and lack of hope,” Judkins said. “I think people living in those situations feel hopeless, and there’s this huge sense of despair, like what’s the point? Why should I care? And I think we’re able to expand parole to people, you will see a lot of change.”

Horan said the omnibus criminal justice reform bill focuses on reentry and workforce training for people in prison who may be eligible for parole, increasing the potential of a decreased prison population and more partnerships with Mississippi’s business community and people in prison.

“I think we need to give the opportunity to those individuals that can earn some type of (parole) eligibility that don’t have it now, or to give them eligibility where they can prove the case that they’re worthy of it,” Horan told Mississippi Today said. “Percentage-wise, we have an extremely large number of (parole) ineligible inmates disproportionate to our population in MDOC…compared to other states.”

The post ‘What we’re doing right now isn’t working’ — Lawmakers take another swing at criminal justice reform appeared first on Mississippi Today.

A recent poll showing Gov. Tate Reeves underwater with voters at his one-year mark in office had something of a political blood-in-the-water effect, prompting much discussion among politicos in recent days of potential GOP primary challengers when 2023 rolls around.

Last month’s poll reported Reeves is “hemorrhaging support among voters at the close of his first year in office,” with 34% of Mississippi voters approving of his performance and nearly 50% disapproving. This shows a sea change — his net approval declined from +28 points in June 2020 to -15 in January 2021 — mostly driven by low marks for his handling of the pandemic.

Now in politics, the saying goes that a week is a lifetime. Two and a half years? That’s like a millennium. Pandemics end. Voter attitudes change. Challengers get cold feet. And at this point, talk is cheap. Challenging an incumbent, well-funded Republican governor in a primary is a heavy lift.

“If you go back and look at the history of all 50 states, you will find maybe one, two or three incumbent Republican governors who lost in their primary,” said Austin Barbour, a national and state GOP strategist. “A sitting governor is almost impossible to beat in a Republican primary. Whether someone thinks Tate Reeves is popular or unpopular — it’s a long time until election day, and history is on his side.”

Some of the GOP gubernatorial primary speculation is the result of the state Democratic Party not being much of a going concern in recent statewide election cycles. Serious internecine Republican challenges for top offices at this point appear more likely than serious general election ones.

Given that most prognosticators’ crystal balls are still cloudy on 2023, here are names most frequently mentioned as potential Republican GOP gubernatorial challengers:

Bill Waller Jr.

Could there be a rematch between Reeves and Waller, a former state Supreme Court chief justice who lost to Reeves in a primary runoff in 2019? It’s possible. Waller ran strong in several, mostly urban areas last time, but he got shellacked mainly on the Coast and in rural areas, largely because of Reeves’ support from President Donald Trump’s voters. Trump may still be a factor in 2023, but likely far less a factor in statewide Mississippi races. Waller has decent name recognition, but he would face challenges raising money. And if he were going to make a serious run again, he’d have to get started working on it soon.

Robert Foster

With little campaign funding or name recognition, Foster in 2019 managed to tap into more right-wing dissatisfaction with the frontrunner GOP candidates and pulled a respectable 18% of the primary vote, serving as a spoiler that helped force Reeves into a runoff with Waller. Foster remains active in politics on social media and has been pointedly critical of Reeves’ handling of the pandemic and of his concessions on changing the state flag. Foster, when interviewed by Mississippi Today recently, wouldn’t rule out another run, adding, “I would be very surprised if Tate Reeves does not receive a strong primary challenge. Very surprised.”

Lt. Gov. Delbert Hosemann

Hosemann would be a formidable candidate, can raise campaign money and has nearly universal name recognition thanks to the “Dilbert … Filbert … Egbert” ads he ran during his long stint as secretary of state. But he’s in a powerful position now — arguably more powerful than the governor’s office. He was widely discussed as a possible gubernatorial candidate in 2019 and instead ran for lieutenant governor. At 73, if Hosemann has eyes on the Governor’s Mansion, 2023 would be his most likely shot.

House Speaker Philip Gunn

Longtime Speaker Gunn is frequently mentioned for statewide/higher office, and would be another formidable candidate in terms of fundraising and name ID. He already has close relationships with the state’s big money donors and has done well with fundraising, at least by House speaker measures. In the past, Gunn’s early and unwavering support for changing the state flag was seen as a major impediment for a Republican primary. But with a large majority of voters endorsing the new flag on the ballot in 2020, and that issue likely far in the rear view mirror by 2023 — or being as big a drag on Reeves and it would be him — Gunn appears more viable.

Attorney General Lynn Fitch

After serving a long hitch as state treasurer before being elected last cycle as attorney general, Fitch has built up name recognition. She’s long struggled with fundraising, but serving as an incumbent AG makes that task easier, and she’s shown an ability to put her incumbency in office to good public relations use for the state’s Republican base. With her name recognition and the bully pulpit the AG’s office provides, Fitch wouldn’t have to make a decision or move until later — say the end of 2022 — for a gubernatorial run.

Billionaire Thomas Duff

Businessman Thomas Duff, who’s listed by Forbes as the richest Mississippian along with his brother James, is frequently mentioned as a possible GOP gubernatorial candidate. Duff reportedly considered a run against Reeves in 2019, although he has been a big financial supporter of Reeves’ campaigns in the past. Duff could easily self-fund a serious campaign. Oddly, hosts of the nationally syndicated Walton and Johnson morning comedy and commentary radio show have been critical of Reeves and urged Duff to run for governor against him.

Secretary of State Michael Watson

Former longtime state Sen. Michael Watson’s name has been floated for years for higher offices, including governor. He’s in a fairly safe, high-profile spot as secretary of state and probably more likely to wait on such a move. Once an impediment to running for statewide office, being from the Coast and having strong support there has become more of a boon, particularly in a statewide GOP primary. If Watson could generate broad support on the Coast, he could pose a challenge for Reeves, who enjoyed large support there.

Auditor Shad White

White is considered a young, rising Republican star in Mississippi politics and is making a name for himself and headlines busting public servants with their hands in the till. He’s obviously ambitious and a likely candidate for higher offices. But at 35, he also has time to wait and build name recognition.

Other names are oft mentioned in any GOP higher office discussions in Mississippi: state Sen. Chris McDaniel, who’s made a couple of unsuccessful though high-profile runs at U.S. Senate; U.S. Rep. Trent Kelly of North Mississippi; wealthy and politically active businessman Gerard Gibert; and former U.S. Rep. Chip Pickering, who’s had a long hiatus from politics. These would all seem long shots for a GOP primary challenge that would in itself appear a long shot.

Mississippi Republican Party Chairman Frank Bordeaux said speculation about primary challenges this far out is common but often just that — speculation. He doesn’t at this point foresee any major GOP primary gubernatorial battle or downticket for other statewide offices for that matter.

Bordeaux, who was backed by Reeves to become MSGOP chairman, said the recent dismal polling of Reeves “doesn’t match what we’re seeing.”

“I don’t believe that Mississippians are that opposed to the current leadership in this state, from the governor on down,” Bordeaux said. “… I think the further we get out of the (COVID-19 pandemic), the better things are going to be in the state of Mississippi, compared to states that did not have our same policies … I’ve been traveling the state, meeting with grassroots groups in every large and small county, and I don’t hear complaints about the governor. I hear complaints about Washington, D.C.”

Again, challenging an incumbent governor — even one who sometimes struggles with favorability and has a penchant for making political enemies — is not for the faint of heart nor shallow of pocket.

“… And 2023 is a lifetime away in state politics,” Bordeaux said.

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