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Democrat Mike Espy is challenging Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith this November.

Two months from Election Day during one of the most uncertain political moments in American history, we asked top Mississippi politicos to share their thoughts on the 2020 U.S. Senate race between Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith and Mike Espy.

Hyde-Smith, the Republican incumbent, has struggled to raise cash this cycle and has not yet built much campaign infrastructure, but she is banking on proxy support from President Donald Trump. Espy has built as robust a campaign as any Mississippi Democrat and hopes to break yet another racial barrier in his long political career.

Click on the names of political experts below to read more about what they think of the 2020 Senate race.

STUART STEVENS, best-selling author and longtime Republican political consultant who has been a top strategist for numerous presidential and congressional campaigns.

“I would think it would be a true statement to say that Mike Espy is in the business of getting votes,” Stevens said. “Cindy Hyde-Smith is in the business of not losing votes. I would much rather be in the business of getting votes.”

PAM SHAW, a longtime strategist who has focused her career in Mississippi politics on reaching and turning out Black voters.

“If you’re a Democrat, you can always count on older Black folk to show up,” Shaw said. “But you can’t count on them to show up during this pandemic. I know older Black people who haven’t missed a vote in many, many cycles who have not been out of their house since March. That has to be a very real concern (for Espy).”

HENRY BARBOUR, a longtime Republican strategist for national and statewide candidates and Mississippi Republican national committeeman.

“I tend to think that Trump voters are more likely to turn out in Mississippi than the folks wanting to beat Trump,” Barbour said. “I think that Cindy Hyde-Smith has an advantage there that she’ll get to ride with a big presidential turnout.”

MARVIN KING, associate professor of political science at the University of Mississippi.

“I think (Hyde-Smith’s) strategy of laying low is safe because she had some major gaffes in 2018,” King said. “As long as you’re polling ahead, despite not raising as much money recently, and as long as Trump is polling ahead, she can just say, ‘I’m a Trump Republican.’ That might be all she needs to do or say. My guess is her advisers know that.”

NATHAN SHRADER, chair of the Department of Government and Politics at Millsaps College.

“That has been my past impression of (Hyde-Smith’s) strategy, to ride on the coattails of the president,” Shrader said. “Think back to the special election in 2018 – Donald Trump’s visit. Part of his rhetoric was pretend I’m on the ballot when you go to vote for Cindy. Now she doesn’t have to rely on pretending he’s on the ballot.”

D’ANDRA OREY, professor of political science at Jackson State University.

“The aftermath of George Floyd’s death has illuminated stark racial, social and economic disparities that grossly impact African Americans,” Orey said. “Those viewing race relations through a more conservative lens may have framed the violence that has taken place as ‘riots’ and ‘looting’ being conducted by ‘thugs.’ These voters will be more attracted to law and order campaign messages.”

MARTY WISEMAN, longtime Mississippi politico and professor at Mississippi State University.

“I think Espy has got a shot, but everything has to fall perfectly,” Wiseman said. “People would have to turn out to vote who probably haven’t turned out to vote since the Obama races in ’08 and ’12.”

The post Hyde-Smith vs. Espy is two months from today. Here’s what top Mississippi politicos think. appeared first on Mississippi Today.

Editor’s note: We asked several Mississippi politicos, two months from Election Day, to share their thoughts on the 2020 U.S. Senate race between Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith and Mike Espy. Click here to return to the list of expert opinions.

Stuart Stevens, a Jackson native, is a best-selling author and longtime Republican political consultant who has been a top strategist for numerous presidential and congressional campaigns. 

His most recent book, “It Was All a Lie: How the Republican Party Became Donald Trump,” released on Aug. 4 and became an instant New York Times best-seller. 

Stevens said Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith’s campaign tactic of riding Trump’s coattails to re-election might be a losing one, even in red Mississippi, given the current political and social climate.

Stuart Stevens

“It’s a terrible environment for any incumbent,” Stevens said. “… It’s like a lot of things in life, it works until it doesn’t. (Hyde-Smith) is an accidental candidate who never had much support. She wasn’t elected on an issue or because she campaigned hard. She hasn’t, as far as I know, been identified with any particular issue.

“I would think it would be a true statement to say that Mike Espy is in the business of getting votes,” Stevens said. “Cindy Hyde-Smith is in the business of not losing votes. I would much rather be in the business of getting votes.”

“Mississippi voted to take down the state flag, and Donald Trump is out there defending the Confederate flag,” Stevens said. “I think he has a complete wrong read of the political moment … Sure, things are changing. The average white teenager in Mississippi would a lot rather be a Black rap star than be Robert E. Lee. We are seeing a complete misreading of cultural change.”

Stevens continued: “(Espy) is a better candidate, and at a certain point that matters. I think it has to be, look, if you woke up in the middle of the night and had the worst economy ever in the history of our country, more Mississippians out of work this August than ever in our history – how do you think the incumbent is doing?”

Click here to return to the list of expert opinions.

The post ‘Espy is a better candidate’: Stuart Stevens discusses Mississippi’s Senate race appeared first on Mississippi Today.

Editor’s note: We asked several Mississippi politicos, two months from Election Day, to share their thoughts on the 2020 U.S. Senate race between Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith and Mike Espy. Click here to return to the list of expert opinions.

Longtime strategist Pam Shaw has focused her career in Mississippi politics on reaching and turning out Black voters.

Shaw, who has worked several high-profile statewide races in recent years, said the pandemic could create a problem for Espy, who needs near historic Black turnout to win.

Pam Shaw

“I actually think white people don’t take COVID as seriously as Black people, so they will show up because they don’t have the fear that I know lots of Black folk have about it,” Shaw said. “If you’re a Democrat, you can always count on older Black folk to show up. But you can’t count on them to show up during this pandemic. I know older Black people who haven’t missed a vote in many, many cycles who have not been out of their houses since March. That has to be a very real concern (for Espy).”

Shaw said that the unprecedented nature of 2020 — the national Black Lives Matter movement that’s spurring social and policy change, the coronavirus pandemic and the economic uncertainty the pandemic has caused — is drawing even inactive voters to the political process. That should, Shaw argues, benefit Espy and other Democrats around the nation. 

But she worries what another spike in COVID-19 cases might mean for turnout in November.

“I think a lot of people who aren’t necessarily politically active are trying to figure out how to vote and are talking about voting,” Shaw said. “The Democratic convention was inspiring. All of that’s great and very real right now. But the problem for Democrats is how do you turn them out? There is definitely a sensitivity with the whole alignment of everything happening right now. If the (virus) numbers go down, I think people will take their chairs and their food and be prepared to sit in line to vote. But if there’s any kind of red alert, I just don’t know.”

Speaking more generally, Shaw said the pandemic has given consultants fits as they think about how to reach voters.

“Mike is playing to increase his margins with Black voters, and I think that strategy is smart,” Shaw said. “If he can get the base out, I think he’s got a real shot.”

She continued: “On the other hand, Cindy Hyde-Smith is lukewarm. There aren’t a lot of people who feel strongly about her one way or another. If there are enough Republicans who sit this election out because they’re unhappy their party is being remade in Trump’s image or because they just don’t care about Cindy, this could get interesting.”

Click here to return to the list of expert opinions.

The post Strategist Pam Shaw: Pandemic could hurt Black voter turnout in Senate race appeared first on Mississippi Today.

Editor’s note: We asked several Mississippi politicos, two months from Election Day, to share their thoughts on the 2020 U.S. Senate race between Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith and Mike Espy. Click here to return to the list of expert opinions.

Henry Barbour, longtime Republican strategist and Mississippi Republican national committeeman, drew parallels between the Cindy Hyde-Smith and Joe Biden campaigns.

On the national level, the Biden campaign appears to be keeping a low profile, riding a perceived lead, and the pandemic is robbing Trump of the large crowds and rallies his campaign feeds on.

Henry Barbour

“I definitely think the school of thought with Biden is the same thing going on in Cindy Hyde-Smith world: Let’s lay low, we have a lead,” Barbour said. “That’s a tried and true strategy. If you’re winning, keep your head down. That’s the same reason that Thad Cochran didn’t debate Chris McDaniel in 2014. Why do it? Don’t give your opponent that platform.”

A recent Espy internal poll had Black turnout at 35% — a really high number, at least five points high — with the Hyde-Smith lead likely to be more like 10 points, Barbour said.

“I tend to think that Trump voters are more likely to turn out in Mississippi than the folks wanting to beat Trump,” Barbour said. “I think that Cindy Hyde-Smith has an advantage there that she’ll get to ride with a big presidential turnout.”

The Mississippi flag issue was whether or not to keep old flag — that’s been decided, so it’s not likely to be a big driver of turnout, Barbour said.

“I think this will be a big turnout because it’s a referendum on Donald Trump and how the country is doing. I think that is going to help Cindy Hyde-Smith. George Floyd, the protests, that will help Mike Espy, but I think Democratic voters in Mississippi know that Donald Trump will win Mississippi, so it’s a little hard to get low-propensity voters to show up on the Democratic side.”

Click here to return to the list of expert opinions.

The post Henry Barbour: Cindy Hyde-Smith can ride Trump’s high turnout to Senate victory in November appeared first on Mississippi Today.

Editor’s note: We asked several Mississippi politicos, two months from Election Day, to share their thoughts on the 2020 U.S. Senate race between Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith and Mike Espy. Click here to return to the list of expert opinions.

Marvin King, associate professor of political science at the University of Mississippi, knows Mike Espy needs to win over moderate voters to win the election.

King said the notion of seeing a massive wave of moderate voters who voted for Trump in 2016 who will decide to vote for Espy in 2020 — or even Trump 2020 voters who also cast a vote for Espy on the same ballot — is tough to conceptualize. 

Marvin King

“I don’t know if there’s enough split-ticket voters,” King said. “If you’re in Mississippi and you want to vote for Trump, you sure as hell need him to hold onto the Senate. If Trump wins and Democrats take control of the Senate, much of Trump’s power is stripped and his presidency is weakened. For that reason, I just wonder if there are enough defectors.”

“I do almost wonder if Espy could make inroads, even great inroads, with suburban voters on the flag,” King continued. “He could say, ‘Let’s go vote for this new flag. Doesn’t matter which one.’ If Cindy Hyde-Smith were to say that, it would not come off as credible. So there are different ways to mobilize different voters. For some of those suburban voters who are sympathetic to Black Lives Matter, that might be a way of tying these things together in a way that gets more voters to come out.”

King also said he wonders if Joe Biden’s pick of Kamala Harris for vice president will energize Black voters in Mississippi to turn out in droves. Harris would be the first Black and Indian American vice president in the nation’s history. King pointed to 2008, when Democrat Travis Childers was elected to the U.S. Congress in Mississippi’s first congressional district, riding the historically high Black turnout that President Barack Obama garnered.

“Being the presidential year, Espy may make some of that Travis Childers magic. That’s a term I never thought I’d use seriously, but I think it’s possible,” King said. “Is there a chance Kamala Harris will get more Black voters out? I don’t think it’ll be to the level of Obama, but it’ll be higher than Clinton (in 2016). So if Mike Espy gets an extra 80,000-90,000 African American voters to turn out, maybe that gets him within striking distance.”

But in the end, King said he believes Hyde-Smith’s ties with Trump may be all she needs to win.

“I think her strategy of laying low is safe because she had some major gaffes in 2018,” King said. “As long as you’re polling ahead, despite not raising as much money recently, and as long as Trump is polling ahead, she can just say, ‘I’m a Trump Republican.’ That might be all she needs to do or say. My guess is her advisers know that.”

“But with that strategy, there’s just nothing for voters,” King continued. “I can see why folks might disengage from the political process. If you’re in a state like Mississippi with the same outcome all the time, you just throw your hands up and say, ‘What’s the point?’” 

Click here to return to the list of expert opinions.

The post Professor Marvin King: Can Mike Espy attract enough moderate voters to win Senate race? appeared first on Mississippi Today.

Editor’s note: We asked several Mississippi politicos, two months from Election Day, to share their thoughts on the 2020 U.S. Senate race between Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith and Mike Espy. Click here to return to the list of expert opinions.

D’Andra Orey, professor of political science at Jackson State University, said the success of Espy’s focus on race during the 2020 Senate election, as the national Black Lives Matter movement rages on, could “depend on which narrative voters subscribe to.”

D’Andra Orey

“Given the current racial climate in America, (Espy and Hyde-Smith) enter the contest where race is already a salient issue, so neither of the candidates will be forced to incorporate such language while on the stump,” Orey said. “I do expect, however, each of the candidates to use such language when speaking to their base. For example, it will be impossible for Espy to speak to his base without mentioning race-specific issues such as the deaths of George Floyd or Breonna Taylor. Hyde-Smith, on the other hand, will be expected to mention the protests as a need for law and order.”

Orey said much of what has occurred following the police shootings of George Floyd in Minnesota and Breonna Taylor in Kentucky has been framed differently by people with different political ideals.

“On the one hand, some may see George Floyd’s death as a blatant disregard for human life,” Orey said. “It is very hard to justify his death based on what has been shown to the public. They also frame the protests as uprisings as opposed to rioting. They view these protests very similar to how the framers viewed the Boston Tea Party and the inescapable violence during the American Revolution.”

Orey continued: “But the aftermath of Floyd’s death has also illuminated stark racial, social and economic disparities that grossly impact African Americans. Those viewing race relations through a more conservative lens may have framed the violence that has taken place as ‘riots’ and ‘looting’ being conducted by ‘thugs.’ These voters will be more attracted to law and order campaign messages.”

Click here to return to the list of expert opinions.

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