If ultra successful businessman Tommy Duff does run for governor of Mississippi in 2027, history will not be on his side.
Duff of Hattiesburg, who along with his brother James are listed as the state’s only billionaires, according to Forbes Magazine, has made no secret of the fact he is considering a run for governor.
If he does, it will mark the first time for Duff’s name to be placed on ballot for public office. The 68-year-old would be starting his political career vying for the highest office in Mississippi.
Combustible Vicksburg contractor Kirk Fordice, a unique politician in Mississippi on many levels, is the only person in the modern era to win the Mississippi governorship in his first venture as a candidate.
All other successful candidates for governor in the modern era have held other elected offices before capturing the seat.
Going all the way back to the 1950s, Ross Barnett was a successful trial attorney before running for governor — his first elected office. He lost the governor’s race twice before finally winning the post in 1959 and then becoming a national figure as he fought to maintain Mississippi’s segregated society.
A few other people have tried to win the governor’s mansion in their first campaigns. They have not been successful.
People always say a candidate needs strong name identification to run for governor. Even though he has not run for statewide office, Duff has the wherewithal and presumably the willingness to write seven — and maybe eight — figure checks to develop that recognition. And with his money, he has the ability to craft the narrative he wants Mississippians to hear.
But what we don’t know yet is whether Duff has the “it” factor. Will Duff look comfortable in his own skin traveling around the state asking people for their support?
Often, though not always, it comes down to the old adage that people vote for the candidate with whom they would have a beer or glass of tea.
It can take a special personality to navigate campaigning. Experience on the campaign trail helps develop the skills to do and say the right things in often stressful circumstances. It helps to be quick on your feet.
Andy Mullins, a longtime administrator at the University of Mississippi and before then an aide to Gov. William Winter, tells the story of Winter campaigning.
Winter entered a drug store in south Mississippi and went to the pharmacist to ask for his support. The pharmacist told him in no uncertain terms, Mullins said, that he would not vote for Winter because he would not help get his son into medical school.
After enduring a verbal beating from the pharmacist, Mullins recalled what Winter said as he left the store: “Put the pharmacist down as undecided.”
Who knows how Duff will perform if he does engage in his first campaign. He may be a natural.
Many thought Tupelo businessman Jack Reed was a natural in 1987 when he entered the governor’s race as a political novice. Indeed, he did appear to be one, but he ran into and lost a close election to a politician with more experience in Ray Mabus.
Reed will go down with others, such as Mike Sturdivant and John Arthur Eaves Jr., who waged and lost their maiden political campaign for the hard-to-obtain office of governor.
Sturdivant, a Glendora farmer and businessman, spent a large sum of his own money running in the Democratic primaries in 1983 and 1987. Eaves also wrote large personal checks to his campaign against incumbent Haley Barbour in 2007.
Duff recently appeared at an economic forum hosted by Mississippi Today and JPMorgan Chase. During his on-stage interview before the hundreds of attendees, he deflected most questions and laid out few policy specifics.
But Duff has plenty of time to develop a campaign platform before the 2027 election. The question is whether he has the skills to connect with Mississippians as he delivers it.
