Mississippian Sarah Thomas on Sunday, Feb. 7, will become the first woman to officiate the Super Bowl. She will serve as the down judge, a position she has held in the NFL since 2015, when she became pro football’s first female official.
You should know that serving as an official in football’s grandest game represents a reward for a job well done. “They are the best of the best,” said Troy Vincent Sr., NFL executive vice president for operations, in announcing the seven-person officiating crew for the 55th Super Bowl, which will be played in Tampa.
While many will be surprised to see a woman on the field at the Super Bowl, anyone who has followed Thomas’s career should not be. This writer surely is not. Thomas, 47, has been a trailblazer throughout her career.
Rick Cleveland
She was first pointed out to me in 2007 when I was covering a Southern Miss football game in Hattiesburg. The late Jack Vaughn, a former NFL official who called three Super Bowls, was serving as the replay official in the press box. We both had our binoculars and he pointed Thomas out to me at about midfield. “She’s good, really good,” he told me. “I believe she’ll be officiating in the NFL one day. She’s that good.”
Thomas, who lives in the Reservoir area in Rankin County, was the first woman to officiate in Conference USA. Later, she became the first woman to officiate a college bowl game. Before that, she was the first to officiate a Mississippi high school playoff game. In 2015, she became the first female official in the NFL. In 2019, she became the first to officiate an NFL playoff game. There has been a definite trend at work here.
Funny story: In the summer of 2011, I was in New Orleans walking the sidelines at a Saints scrimmage in their indoor practice facility. I literally bumped into a little boy on the sidelines, playing with a tackling dummy. He looked to be four or five years old, and I figured he was the son of a coach or player.
“Where’s your daddy?” I asked him.
“He’s at home,” the boy answered.
“Then where’s your mommy?” I asked.
The little guy turned and pointed out on the field. “She’s out there,” he said. “See her? She’s wearing the striped shirt.”
And there was Sarah Thomas, blowing her whistle, waving her arms and signaling a timeout. Turns out, she was then in a training program to become an NFL official, just as Jack Vaughn had predicted.
So, you ask, how does a woman become a football official? Well, if you are Sarah Thomas, you grow up in Pascagoula playing all sports with your two brothers. In high school, you play softball and basketball. You continue to play at Mobile College, where you become an academic All-American in basketball. You graduate and there’s no sport left for you to play and an older brother asks you if you’d like to try officiating. So you attend an organizational meeting of high school officials, you study the rules, you take the test and you join the group.
And then you work your way up the ladder, rung by rung, until you reach the top. Last Sunday night, Thomas called Tampa Bay’s victory over the New Orleans Saints in the Superdome. TV cameras showed her several times in her duties as down judge, lined up at the line of scrimmage on the sideline opposite of the line judge on the other side of the field. She was shown making several calls, none of which she missed. She officiates with a confident and business-like air about her.
Said the NFL’s Vincent of Thomas in Tuesday’s announcement, “Her elite performance and commitment to excellence has earned her the right to officiate the Super Bowl.”
Hers is simply one more advancement for her gender in sports. I’ve seen so many in my years of covering games. The first Mississippi high school girls basketball games I covered were three-on-three on each end of the court because the old men who made the rules thought girls too dainty to run the full floor. They didn’t have a women’s marathon in the Olympics until 1972. Again, 26.2 miles was considered far too strenuous for females. Now, the women’s world record for marathons is two hours, 14 minutes, four seconds. That would have won men’s Olympic gold in 1968.
The Miami Marlins of Major League Baseball recently hired a female general manager. Several college athletic conferences have female commissioners. And we could go on and on.
Sarah Thomas is not the first female to possess the ability, personality and know-how to successfully officiate professional football. She is the first to have the opportunity.
And she has made good on it. There are 121 NFL officials, one woman: Sarah Thomas.
NFL officials assigned to the Super Bowl are not allowed to do media interviews until after the game.
I texted Thomas a congratulatory note Tuesday.
Her response: “Thank you, I want to make Mississippi proud.”
In this Jan. 23, 2019 file photograph, Roy Mitchell, executive director with the Mississippi Health Advocacy Program, comments on a Medicaid update presentation before the House Medicaid Committee at the Capitol in Jackson, Miss. (AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis, File)
Mississippi leans heavily on federal money. It takes in a larger share than most other states.
But when it comes to accepting around $1 billion per year in health care assistance from the feds, Mississippi steadfastly refuses. Leaders say they are trying to fix the state’s health woes, from a last-ranked health care system and the highest percentage of residents with past-due medical debt. Yet they reject a free-flowing federal money spigot that experts say would quickly improve those rankings.
This federal money is tied to extending Medicaid insurance coverage to a larger share of Mississippi’s population. It’s a step Republican officials have long been hesitant to take, but a growing number of advocates say the state has waited long enough, especially as Mississippi seeks to recover from the pandemic.
They are exploring several options to expand coverage and accept the federal money, from ballot initiatives to a proposal where hospitals would help the state pay for its share of the costs.
“The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted existing health disparities and a lack of access to healthcare for many Mississippians,” said Linda Dixon, health law director for the Mississippi Center for Justice. “Now is the time we can expand Medicaid to ensure coverage for all Mississippians.”
Mississippians in the gap
For decades Medicaid was intended for pregnant women, low-income seniors, people with disabilities and poor children. But the 2010 Affordable Care Act allowed states to expand access to low-income adults.
There are approximately 170,000 Mississippians who could qualify, according to one estimate by the Kaiser Family Foundation. These are mostly working folks who earn up to 138% of the federal poverty line, or about $17,600 for one person.
Without Medicaid expansion, they fall into a coverage gap. They make too much money to qualify for traditional Medicaid coverage, yet not enough to qualify for cheaper plans in the Affordable Care Act insurance marketplace.
If it extended coverage to these people, Mississippi would be on the hook for 10% of the program’s costs. The feds would pay the rest of the tab. Some estimates suggest this could run the state $75 million to $100 million annually.
State leaders, especially Republicans, have often questioned how Mississippi could possibly come up with those funds in its notoriously lean budget.
The Mississippi Hospital Association’s plan
But the Mississippi Hospital Association has suggested this money doesn’t actually need to come from state coffers.
Instead, the group proposes paying the state’s share from a combination of taxes paid by hospitals themselves, as well as fees paid by the program’s enrollees — $20 per month per person, plus copayments. It calls the plan Mississippi Cares.
Hospitals are willing to pay a tax for Medicaid expansion because it would cost them less money than constantly treating patients who don’t have insurance and can’t afford to pay out-of-pocket, said Tim Moore, the association’s CEO. In 2019, he said, Mississippi’s hospitals gave out $616 million worth of this free care.
An analysis commissioned by the Hospital Association in 2019 found the Mississippi Cares plan could generate thousands of jobs as well as $200 million more in state revenue per year. And it estimated it could reduce the hospitals’ uncompensated care price tag by $250 million.
“This is basically an insurance policy that is paid for by hospitals that are already seeing these patients anyway,” Moore has said of the proposal.
Because the hospital plan would be customized for Mississippi, the state would need to request approval from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. CMS has approved such waivers in other states, including in Indiana when Vice President Mike Pence was governor, a fact Moore brings up frequently.
He said the Hospital Association plans to be “more aggressive” about promoting their expansion plan during the 2021 legislative session, which began this month. In a presentation to lawmakers late last year, he saved his Medicaid expansion pitch for last, saying leaders need to make a “simple choice.”
“Are we going to continue to turn our backs on a plan which would generate hundreds of millions of dollars in straight revenue, would help hundreds of thousands of Mississippians of low income — working adults — and the Mississippi hospitals and healthcare providers who serve all of us?”
Polling and murky politics
Public support has only grown for Medicaid expansion in recent years. A Millsaps College and Chism Strategies poll from a year ago found 60% supported expansion, up from 52% two years prior.
Recent polls — including a January survey from Millsaps and Chism — shows Mississippians are more worried about health costs and access than any other state issue. Those concerns have prompted Medicaid expansion to be popular campaign trail issues for Democrat and Republican candidates alike.
But the political path to expansion in Mississippi remains rocky because Republican Gov. Tate Reeves continues to strongly oppose the idea and would almost surely veto an expansion bill. To force it through, two-thirds of the GOP-controlled Legislature would need to vote to override Reeves.
“I remain adamantly opposed to Medicaid expansion in Mississippi. I firmly believe that it is not good public policy to place 300,000 additional Mississippians on government-funded health care,” Reeves wrote in his recent budget recommendation, adding the state money for such a program would be better spent elsewhere, including on raising teacher pay.
His statement, which cited a high-end estimate for how many people might benefit from the program, didn’t mention the Hospital Association’s plan, which would cover the state’s costs.
“We can’t even discuss it” with the governor, Moore said of the hospital plan.
Still, Lt. Gov. Delbert Hosemann — a Republicanwho advocated for expansion when he ran for the office in 2019 — recently told reporters he remains open to expansion even though it was not among his top list of priorities for this session. He said the Hospital Association’s plan is worth considering.
And he said he will allow Senate Public Health and Welfare Chairman Hob Bryan, a Democrat, to choose whether to advance expansion legislation.
“In my conversations with him, I didn’t sense he was going to bring up an expansion of health care this year,” Hosemann said of Bryan. “But I did sense that was on his radar.”
Bryan is an avid supporter of Medicaid expansion. But in an interview, the Democrat said such a bill would more likely be considered by the Senate’s Medicaid committee, and even if it was assigned to his committee, it is destined for eventual failure given Reeves’ adamant opposition.
“Elections have consequences,” Bryan said of Reeves’ victory in 2019. “That’s a mighty important factor.”
Medicaid expansion generally remains a topic many legislative Republicans avoid, even as Democrats have introduced dozens of bills in recent years.
A spokeswoman for House Speaker Philip Gunn, R-Clinton, did not answer questions about where he stands on the Hospital Association’s proposal or similar Medicaid expansion ideas before the session. The Republican leaders of both the House and Senate Medicaid committees also declined to weigh in.
What the research says
Bryan said that the economic and health benefits of expansion are clear.
Indeed, a Kaiser literature review of 404 studies found generally positive outcomes for states that expanded. Expansion reduces how many people in a state are uninsured, especially helpful in rural areas. It helps increase access to care, which some studies suggest translate into more diseases and conditions caught earlier.
And in terms of state economics, the studies find state revenues and overall economic growth increase following expansion. “Multiple studies suggest that expansion can result in state savings by offsetting state costs in other areas,” the review says.
Meanwhile, the authors write, a “growing number of studies show an association between expansion and gains in employment as well as growth in the labor market.”
Lingering Republican opposition, Bryan argued, is due to only one factor: Medicaid expansion was made possible thanks to the Affordable Care Act — or Obamacare.
Bryan said it’s the biggest policy failure he’s seen in his legislative career, which dates to 1984.
Will a ballot initiative get traction?
Advocates say the pandemic is the time to press the issue. Roy Mitchell, executive director of the Mississippi Health Advocacy Program, noted the coronavirus reinforces how critical Medicaid coverage is for people who lost their jobs and need testing and treatment.
The next step in that process, he said, is to commission a fiscal analysis of expansion in the state, including the potential larger economic benefits. These figures are needed to make a more robust pitch to voters, he said.
Moore said the Hospital Association’s board of directors has also discussed the possibility of a Medicaid expansion ballot initiative.
Ballot initiatives have been a winning strategy in other states, including conservative ones such as Oklahoma and Missouri, where voters recently approved expansion programs. Mississippi is one of 12 states not to expand.
“Obviously there’s shifting attitudes towards expansion in the South, and in general,” Mitchell said.
Advocates acknowledge they will likely need more broad support from state medical organizations and doctors for a successful initiative effort.
A Mississippi State Medical Association spokeswoman did not respond to messages seeking an interview about expansion. The group has largely stayed quiet about the debate; its political arm endorsed Reeves for governor in 2019.
However, the group’s president recently told lawmakers they have waited far too long to approve expansion.
“Inexcusably, we have forgone billions in federal assistance that would’ve helped our most vulnerable citizens,” Dr. Mark Horne said. “We ask the legislature to act on expanding coverage in the upcoming session.”
Gov. Tate Reeves on Tuesday appointed John Rounsaville as permanent Mississippi Development Authority director after Rounsaville served as interim since May.
Rounsaville joked that he first thought Reeves named him interim director of the state’s economic development agency during the COVID-19 pandemic so he could blame Rounsaville if the state economy “flopped.”
“2020 was not a flop,” Rounsaville said. “We had $1.6 billion in new capital investment, 30% above 2019’s capital investment … and more than 5,000 new jobs were committed to Mississippi … We are definitely moving the needle forward despite the challenges.”
MDA is the state’s lead economic and community development agency, and employs about 300 people. It works to recruit new businesses to the state and retain and expand existing industry and manages the state’s energy programs. MDA also promotes Mississippi as a tourism destination.
Rounsaville replaces Glenn McCullough Jr., who served as MDA director under former Gov. Phil Bryant from 2015 through January of last year.
“(Rounsaville) has done an excellent job in his interim capacity,” Reeves said Tuesday. “He’s earned the respect of Mississippi business leaders across the state.”
Rounsaville most recently served as state director for USDA Rural Development for the President Trump administration, a post he also held from 2006 to 2008 under President George W. Bush. Rounsaville served as deputy chief of staff and other roles for former U.S. Rep. Chip Pickering and as policy adviser to former Gov. Haley Barbour.
Rounsaville is a decorated military veteran and currently serves as a JAG and major at the 186th in the Mississippi Air Force National Guard. He is a master’s graduate of Mississippi State University and received a law degree from the University of Mississippi. Rounsavilee and his wife, Laura, live in Madison with their two sons.
Reeves and Rounsaville said Mississippi has economically fared better than most states amid the pandemic, and the governor noted that the state ranks third-best in the nation for job recovery from the pandemic.
“We opened up our economy more quickly and more fully than most other states,” Reeves said.
A Mississippi state senator and a state representative have tested positive for COVID-19, Mississippi Today confirmed on Tuesday, prompting concerns that another Capitol virus outbreak could occur.
“We immediately contacted Dr. (Thomas) Dobbs (the state health officer) and are following protocol,” Leah Rupp Smith, a spokesperson for Senate leader Lt. Gov. Delbert Hosemann, said Tuesday.
House Pro Tem Rep. Jason White told Mississippi Today on Tuesday that a member of the House of Representatives also tested positive. White said the members sitting near the infected member are not participating in proceedings this week to try to prevent the spread.
He said the House got advice from Dobbs before opting not to recess the legislative session.
“We are following his lead and are in constant communications with him,” White said.
Additional details about the positive tests were not immediately available. It is unclear which lawmakers tested positive.
On the same day the positive tests were confirmed, lawmakers and legislative staffers stood in line inside the Capitol to receive COVID-19 vaccines.
Officials said the Department of Health initially planned to administer vaccines to lawmakers over 65 and their spouses, but they had extra doses and opened it up to all lawmakers and legislative staffers. The state has been slow to administer vaccines to the greater public, and the few vaccine appointments available across the state are currently open to anyone over the age of 65 or those with pre-existing health conditions.
It is not clear whether the positive tests resulted in the Department of Health opting to provide the vaccine to legislators on Tuesday.
A COVID-19 outbreak occurred at the Capitol while lawmakers met during the summer of 2019. Hosemann, who presides over the Senate and contracted the virus last year, proposed starting the 2021 session in early January and taking a break until later in the year over concerns of an additional outbreak. House leadership, including Speaker Philip Gunn, who also contracted the virus last year, rejected that proposal, forcing lawmakers to conduct business as usual in Jackson this month.
“I’m concerned about my legislators going back to different parts of the state and spreading it to places that didn’t previously have it,” Hosemann said in late December. “And I’m worried about the people who work here (at the Capitol). We have several hundred people who work here every day.”
During the summer outbreak, at least 49 of the 175 members (including the lieutenant governor) had contracted the coronavirus, resulting in some members being hospitalized. In addition more than 10 staff members and legislative lobbyists also contracted the disease in the summer. Health officials attributed at least one death to the outbreak — a family member of someone who contracted the virus at the Capitol.
The Legislature has attempted to follow strict guidelines this session with most members and staff wearing masks. Committee meetings, for the most part, have been limited to the larger rooms in the state Capitol to allow for social distancing. But some lawmakers have been seen without masks, and others have held maskless meetings in small spaces.
As lawmakers contend with virus concerns, Gov. Tate Reeves and the legislative leaders have been trying to determine when and if the governor would hold a State of the State address this year. There will likely be no State of the State in a joint session in a crowded House chamber as usual, though there has been talk of holding a State of the State address outside the Capitol.
There is no requirement that a speech be provided. The state Constitution simply says “the governor shall, from time to time, give the Legislature information of the State of the State and recommend for consideration such measurers as may be deemed necessary and expedient.”
Gov. Tate Reeves on Monday said that more than 100,000 Mississippians have received COVID-19 vaccinations, and the state has improved from 50th in the nation to the mid- to high 30s in getting “shots into arms.”
Reeves said that the state had administered 114,947 doses as of Friday — practically all its allotment through then — including 9,719 fully inoculated with a second dose. He said the state hopes this week to administer up to 67,800 doses.
As of Monday, appointments will be available for next week for those 65 and older and health care workers, Reeves said, and he hopes the inoculations can soon begin for first responders and teachers. Reeves said the state expects to have about 30,000 doses available for next week.
The state website and call center were overwhelmed in first weeks of the state providing inoculation appointments for senior citizens and health care providers. Reeves, at a press conference Monday with health department, emergency management and military officials, said the website and call center have been improved and “bulked up” to better meet demand.
“We will do everything in our power to remove every roadblock and provide access to as many people as possible,” Reeves said. “There is no higher priority.”
The state is providing vaccinations by appointment only at 19 drive through sites, and 144 private hospitals and clinics are also administering the shots. Nursing homes and other long-term care facilities are providing vaccinations through a federally run program in partnership with private pharmacies.
Reeves said the state will begin resupplying only those private providers that have administered at least 65% of their allotments. He also said he is working to shift doses from nursing homes to the general population because he believes nursing homes were “over allocated.” Vaccinations in long-term care facilities have been going slower than state officials had expected, but Reeves said he’s been given assurance that will improve.
You’ve probably heard this said many different ways by many different football players, coaches and announcers. To me, Archie Manning said it best long ago after he won NFC Offensive Player of the Year and he told me, “Just remember, the quarterback always gets too much credit and too much blame.”
If it’s not written in stone somewhere, it should be.
Those words kept coming back to me Sunday night as we watched what is surely the final chapter of the compelling story that has been Drew Brees’ 15-year run with the New Orleans Saints and his 20-year NFL career.
Brees was pedestrian, at best, in the 30-20 defeat to the Tampa Bay Bucs. His numbers were telling: 19 for 34, 134 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions. The interceptions were all converted into Tampa Bay scores. Still, Manning’s words rang true. There was plenty blame to go around. Brees’ receivers created very little space between themselves and Bucs defenders. Brees’ protection often broke down. The Saints running game sputtered. Key players were hurt. The Bucs won the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. They were the better team.
But here’s the deal: In similar situations over the past 15 years, we have seen Brees find a way. We have seen him zip passes into the smallest of windows to lift the Saints to unlikely victories. We have seen him somehow maneuver away from a daunting pass rush and throw a dart between defenders to a well-covered receiver at the most bleak of moments. Indeed, we have seen it so many times that it almost seems inconceivable these days when Brees’ passes arrive a nanosecond too late or miss the mark. That happened time after time Sunday night. Even a couple of his completed passes seemed to stay in the air forever.
Afterward, Brees said he had not decided whether or not to retire from the field to the NBC broadcast booth. He has already signed a post-retirement offer with the network.
Now surely is the time. His 42-year-old muscles and bones, many of the latter still mending, have pretty much made the decision for him.
But, oh, what memories he leaves us. He is a first-ballot, should-be-unanimous Hall of Famer. He would retire as the NFL’s all-time leader in passing yardage.
Let’s think back to 2006 when the Saints signed him. Remember? Hurricane Katrina had devastated New Orleans and much of the Gulf South region. The Saints had finished 3-13 the year before, playing home games in Baton Rouge and San Antonio because of Katrina.
Furthermore, the Saints had achieved only five winning seasons in their previous 39. The Saints came to Jackson and Millsaps College to train that summer of 2006. Sean Payton was the brand new coach, coming over from the Dallas Cowboys. Brees was on the mend from a terrible injury to his throwing shoulder suffered the season before in San Diego. Many experts – among them, Nick Saban – believed the injury career-threatening.
There was every reason to expect abject failure from Brees and the Saints. The Saints offensive line was a patched-together group. Deuce McAllister was at the end of his marvelous career. The Saints defense, so porous the year before, was being overhauled, piece by piece.
And here came Brees to Millsaps, at first throwing passes that lacked zip, fluttered and often missed their target. Nevertheless, Brees kept telling us his shoulder was 90 percent back to normal and that training camp would provide the final 10 percent.
And it did. Those 2006 Saints finished 10 and 6. Brees was spectacular. He has been consistently spectacular since. He is the best player in New Orleans Saints franchise history: Saint Drew.
But again, we must remember the quarterback always gets too much blame, but also too much credit.
Payton deserves so much of the credit for the Saints’ success of the past 15 years. He could not have done it without Brees, but it’s also highly doubtful Brees could have done it without him. They have been a terrific team, and Payton has surrounded Brees for most of that time with a remarkable supporting cast.
The Saints will retain the nucleus of a playoff-calibre team if Payton can find or develop a quarterback to replace the legend. Make no mistake, that’s a must. The quarterback always gets too much blame or too much credit, but you cannot succeed in the NFL without a really, really good one. Saint Drew was one of the best of all.
Highlighting unrest in Washington and reported threats to state capitols across the nation, Mississippi Today journalists discuss the odd start to 2021 for the state’s elected officials in this week’s The Other Side podcast episode.
China’s star has been steadily rising for decades. Besides slashing extreme poverty rates from 88 percent to under 2 percent in just 30 years, the country has become a global powerhouse in manufacturing and technology. Its pace of growth may slow due to an aging population, but China is nonetheless one of the world’s biggest players in multiple cutting-edge tech fields.
One of these fields, and perhaps the most significant, is artificial intelligence. The Chinese government announced a plan in 2017 to become the world leader in AI by 2030, and has since poured billions of dollars into AI projects and research across academia, government, and private industry. The government’s venture capital fund is investing over $30 billion in AI; the northeastern city of Tianjin budgeted $16 billion for advancing AI; and a $2 billion AI research park is being built in Beijing.
On top of these huge investments, the government and private companies in China have access to an unprecedented quantity of data, on everything from citizens’ health to their smartphone use. WeChat, a multi-functional app where people can chat, date, send payments, hail rides, read news, and more, gives the CCP full access to user data upon request; as one BBC journalist put it, WeChat “was ahead of the game on the global stage and it has found its way into all corners of people’s existence. It could deliver to the Communist Party a life map of pretty much everybody in this country, citizens and foreigners alike.” And that’s just one (albeit big) source of data.
Many believe these factors are giving China a serious leg up in AI development, even providing enough of a boost that its progress will surpass that of the US.
But there’s more to AI than data, and there’s more to progress than investing billions of dollars. Analyzing China’s potential to become a world leader in AI—or in any technology that requires consistent innovation—from multiple angles provides a more nuanced picture of its strengths and limitations. In a June 2020 article in Foreign Affairs, Oxford fellows Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne argued that China’s big advantages may not actually be that advantageous in the long run—and its limitations may be very limiting.
Moving the AI Needle
To get an idea of who’s likely to take the lead in AI, it could help to first consider how the technology will advance beyond its current state.
To put it plainly, AI is somewhat stuck at the moment. Algorithms and neural networks continue to achieve new and impressive feats—like DeepMind’s AlphaFold accurately predicting protein structures or OpenAI’s GPT-3 writing convincing articles based on short prompts—but for the most part these systems’ capabilities are still defined as narrow intelligence: completing a specific task for which the system was painstakingly trained on loads of data.
(It’s worth noting here that some have speculated OpenAI’s GPT-3 may be an exception, the first example of machine intelligence that, while not “general,” has surpassed the definition of “narrow”; the algorithm was trained to write text, but ended up being able to translate between languages, write code, autocomplete images, do math, and perform other language-related tasks it wasn’t specifically trained for. However, all of GPT-3’s capabilities are limited to skills it learned in the language domain, whether spoken, written, or programming language).
Both AlphaFold’s and GPT-3’s success was due largely to the massive datasets they were trained on; no revolutionary new training methods or architectures were involved. If all it was going to take to advance AI was a continuation or scaling-up of this paradigm—more input data yields increased capability—China could well have an advantage.
But one of the biggest hurdles AI needs to clear to advance in leaps and bounds rather than baby steps is precisely this reliance on extensive, task-specific data. Other significant challenges include the technology’s fast approach to the limits of current computing power and its immense energy consumption.
Thus, while China’s trove of data may give it an advantage now, it may not be much of a long-term foothold on the climb to AI dominance. It’s useful for building products that incorporate or rely on today’s AI, but not for pushing the needle on how artificially intelligent systems learn. WeChat data on users’ spending habits, for example, would be valuable in building an AI that helps people save money or suggests items they might want to purchase. It will enable (and already has enabled) highly tailored products that will earn their creators and the companies that use them a lot of money.
But data quantity isn’t what’s going to advance AI. As Frey and Osborne put it, “Data efficiency is the holy grail of further progress in artificial intelligence.”
To that end, research teams in academia and private industry are working on ways to make AI less data-hungry. New training methods like one-shot learning and less-than-one-shot learning have begun to emerge, along with myriad efforts to make AI that learns more like the human brain.
While not insignificant, these advancements still fall into the “baby steps” category. No one knows how AI is going to progress beyond these small steps—and that uncertainty, in Frey and Osborne’s opinion, is a major speed bump on China’s fast-track to AI dominance.
How Innovation Happens
A lot of great inventions have happened by accident, and some of the world’s most successful companies started in garages, dorm rooms, or similarly low-budget, nondescript circumstances (including Google, Facebook, Amazon, and Apple, to name a few). Innovation, the authors point out, often happens “through serendipity and recombination, as inventors and entrepreneurs interact and exchange ideas.”
Frey and Osborne argue that although China has great reserves of talent and a history of building on technologies conceived elsewhere, it doesn’t yet have a glowing track record in terms of innovation. They note that of the 100 most-cited patents from 2003 to present, none came from China. Giants Tencent, Alibaba, and Baidu are all wildly successful in the Chinese market, but they’re rooted in technologies or business models that came out of the US and were tweaked for the Chinese population.
“The most innovative societies have always been those that allowed people to pursue controversial ideas,” Frey and Osborne write. China’s heavy censorship of the internet and surveillance of citizens don’t quite encourage the pursuit of controversial ideas. The country’s social credit system rewards people who follow the rules and punishes those who step out of line. Frey adds that top-down execution of problem-solving is effective when the problem at hand is clearly defined—and the next big leaps in AI are not.
It’s debatable how strongly a culture of social conformism can impact technological innovation, and of course there can be exceptions. But a relevant historical example is the Soviet Union, which, despite heavy investment in science and technology that briefly rivaled the US in fields like nuclear energy and space exploration, ended up lagging far behind primarily due to political and cultural factors.
Similarly, China’s focus on computer science in its education system could give it an edge—but, as Frey told me in an email, “The best students are not necessarily the best researchers. Being a good researcher also requires coming up with new ideas.”
Winner Take All?
Beyond the question of whether China will achieve AI dominance is the issue of how it will use the powerful technology. Several of the ways China has already implemented AI could be considered morally questionable, from facial recognition systems used aggressively against ethnic minorities to smart glasses for policemen that can pull up information about whoever the wearer looks at.
This isn’t to say the US would use AI for purely ethical purposes. The military’s Project Maven, for example, used artificially intelligent algorithms to identify insurgent targets in Iraq and Syria, and American law enforcement agencies are also using (mostly unregulated)facial recognition systems.
It’s conceivable that “dominance” in AI won’t go to one country; each nation could meet milestones in different ways, or meet different milestones. Researchers from both countries, at least in the academic sphere, could (and likely will) continue to collaborate and share their work, as they’ve done on many projects to date.
If one country does take the lead, it will certainly see some major advantages as a result. Brookings Institute fellow Indermit Gill goes so far as to say that whoever leads in AI in 2030 will “rule the world” until 2100. But Gill points out that in addition to considering each country’s strengths, we should consider how willing they are to improve upon their weaknesses.
While China leads in investment and the US in innovation, both nations are grappling with huge economic inequalities that could negatively impact technological uptake. “Attitudes toward the social change that accompanies new technologies matter as much as the technologies, pointing to the need for complementary policies that shape the economy and society,” Gill writes.
Will China’s leadership be willing to relax its grip to foster innovation? Will the US business environment be enough to compete with China’s data, investment, and education advantages? And can both countries find a way to distribute technology’s economic benefits more equitably?
Time will tell, but it seems we’ve got our work cut out for us—and China does too.
