Mississippi has fewer persuadable voters per capita than any other state. Can Mike Espy persuade the unpersuadable to win the Senate race?
Mississippi is nicknamed the hospitality state, but when it comes to voting, it is the state of entrenchment.
Mississippi is the most inelastic state in the nation when it comes to voting, according to a study by the FiveThirtyEight political blog. In simpler terms, the hospitality state has fewer persuadable voters per capita than any state in the nation. Only the nation’s capital, Washington, D.C., a Democratic stronghold, has fewer persuadable voters, based on the updated study.
The lack of persuadable voters highlights the obstacles faced in Mississippi by Democratic candidates and Mike Espy, specifically, in his race against Republican incumbent U.S. Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith. In a sense, all the momentum appears to be on Espy’s side. He has raised far more money than Hyde-Smith this year and is dominating the television airwaves across the state.
Yet the Cook Political Report, a national political website that forecasts elections, ranks the Mississippi Senate race in the “solid Republican” category. The aforementioned FiveThirtyEight gives Hyde-Smith a 91% chance of winning.
The national forecasters give Democratic Senate candidates in Kansas, Montana and Alaska better odds of winning than they give Espy. What gives? Are those states more Democratic than Mississippi? In the 2016 presidential election, Trump won Mississippi by 18%, compared to more than 20% in Montana and Kansas and by almost 15% in Alaska.
The issue, according to FiveThirtyEight, is not that Mississippi is more Republican than those states, but that it has fewer voters willing to cross party lines. The blog says elastic voters are more likely to be swayed by political events — the economy, a scandal, a pandemic.
Perhaps the most disturbing trend here is how inelastic the country is as a whole. The study describes Mississippi and many other Southern states as having “ lots of white evangelical Protestants and white voters with conservative views on racial issues who rarely if ever vote for Democratic candidates.” The study identifies Kansas, Montana and Alaska as very white states, but “not as evangelical or racially conservative.”
Another issue that might make Mississippi a little different than states like Kansas is that Mississippi also has a high number of Democrats who also are difficult to persuade to cross party lines. Generally speaking, the vast majority of those unpersuadable Democrats are Black voters.
While not giving some of the Southern Democratic Senate candidates as much of a chance as it gives the Democrats in Kansas, Montana and Alaska, FiveThirtyEight does say the high percentage of Black voters in those Southern states gives Democrats a chance in an election cycle where it appears all the momentum is on the side of the Democrats.
A key caveat for Espy, though, is that there are more persuadable Republicans than Democrats in Mississippi. To win in November, Espy has to entice people to the polls who do not normally vote.
Many believe these are progressives who have not been enthused with the generally conservative Democrats who have run for statewide office in Mississippi. Espy, who has largely centered his 2020 campaign on race and social justice, has tried to attract those voters by embracing the national Democratic ticket to an extent that most Mississippi Democratic statewide candidates have not in past election years.
In addition, Espy must convince a small percentage of those Mississippi Republican voters to come over to his camp. Espy is trying to do that with recent ads touting the need to change the state’s trajectory to ensure young people do not leave the state, and by highlighting his willingness to work across party lines, like he did in the 1980s and 90s with Republicans like Sen. Thad Cochran and President Ronald Reagan.
To win, Espy must do both of those things: inspire new, mostly younger progressives and convince some of those traditionally unpersuadable Republicans.
Espy maintains that he will win if Black voters in the Nov. 3 election make up 35.5% of the total vote, and that if he increases his share of the white vote from the 18% he garnered in his 2018 Senate special election against Hyde-Smith to 22%. Based on early absentee voting numbers, there is a strong likelihood that the African American turnout will be higher than the 32.5% the Espy campaign says he earned in the 2018 special election.
If that’s the case, that might leave Espy just needing to persuade those unpersuadable Mississippi voters to win. It’s a tall task, but time will tell if it’s possible.
Mississippi is the only state not to provide all citizens an option to vote early rather than go to crowded precincts on Election Day during the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a report by the Democracy Initiative.
“Mississippi is now the only state in which in-person voting on Election Day is the only option available to all voters,” said the report from the Democracy Initiative, which is a coalition of 75 groups advocating for voter access. “In Mississippi, an excuse (other than risk of COVID-19) is required to cast an absentee ballot or to vote early, and not all voters qualify.”
Will you feel safe voting in person on November 3? Will fear of safety keep you from the polls? Share your thoughts with us by filling out the form below.
The pandemic continues to play havoc with college football — Southern Miss football, in particular.
The Golden Eagles’ scheduled Saturday game with UTEP at El Paso has been postponed indefinitely because of COVID-19 cases within the Southern Miss team.
This makes the second straight week, Southern Miss will not play because of the pandemic. The Oct. 10 Florida Atlantic (FAU) Conference USA game, which was scheduled to be played in Hattiesburg, was also postponed — that one because of COVID-19 issues within the FAU program.
Jeremy McClain
“The health and safety of everyone involved continues to be our guiding force which made the decision to postpone the game the appropriate one,” USM athletic director Jeremy McClain said. “We are disappointed for our student-athletes who will not get a chance to participate for a second straight weekend, however, we will work with UTEP, in conjunction with Conference USA to reschedule this game for later this season.”
Earlier this week, McClain said he hoped the FAU game could be rescheduled at the end of the regular season, currently scheduled to end with a Nov. 27 game at UAB. That FAU-USM game presumably would be played the first weekend in December.
Southern Miss has not played since 41-31 victory over North Texas on Oct. 3 at Denton, Texas. The Eagles’ next scheduled game is against Hugh Freeze-coached Liberty University Oct. 24 at Lynchburg, Va.
In all, Southern Miss has had seven scheduling changes forced by the pandemic for a season that is now seven weeks old.
Nationwide, 32 NCAA Division I games have been postponed or canceled because of the pandemic.
Two Southeastern Conference games, scheduled for Saturday, have been postponed: LSU at Florida, and Vanderbilt at Missouri. Both have been tentatively rescheduled for Dec. 12.
Democrat Mike Espy had $3.17 million cash on hand at the end of September, while Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith had nearly $1.5 million.
Reports filed Thursday show Democratic challenger Mike Espy outraised incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith more than 4-to-1 between July and September.
Espy raised more than $4 million for the quarter, bringing his total for the race to $5.3 million. Hyde-Smith raised less than $815,000 for the quarter, and $2.85 million total.
Espy’s report showed he had $3.17 million cash on hand at the end of September. Hyde-Smith’s showed she had nearly $1.5 million.
Espy appears to be using his more than 2-to-1 cash advantage by vastly out-advertising Hyde-Smith so far in the critical home stretch before the Nov. 3 election, flooding the airwaves across Mississippi with his messaging. Espy this week is spending $1.01 million on television and radio ads, according to FCC reports, compared to Hyde-Smith spending just $147,000.
Espy’s latest influx of cash is part of a national wave of mostly small donations to Democratic congressional campaigns after U.S. Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s death, although Espy has outraised Hyde-Smith in all but one reporting period this election cycle.
“This is a well-funded campaign,” Espy said this week, but he said that more importantly, his is a well-organized campaign that can quickly put the influx of money to use in getting his message out and turning out voters.
“We have the best data set, numbers and algorithms,” Espy said. “… There are 100,000 African Americans in Mississippi who haven’t voted since President Obama in 2008. We know who they are, have their emails and cell numbers and addresses. We have 40 to 50 people out knocking on doors — of course, wearing Espy for Senate masks and gloves and PPE.”
Espy said he believes his message is also reaching, and resonating with, white voters.
“I want to represent all of Mississippi,” Espy said, repeating a refrain he’s used since he announced his candidacy in 2019.
Hyde-Smith’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment on Thursday.
Austin Barbour, a state and national GOP strategist and fundraiser, said Espy’s record fundraising hauls will be a boon to his campaign, but questioned whether it would be enough to overcome Hyde-Smith’s lead in a very red state.
“Money moves the needle, yes — allows you to put your message out,” Barbour said. “But the president (Trump) is going to get a tremendous turnout in Mississippi, and Sen. Hyde-Smith is going to benefit from that massive turnout. That allows her campaign not to have to rely so much on campaign funds for television.”
Barbour continued: “What she’s got to do in these closing three weeks is with the dollars she has, she has to remind, not show but remind, voters, ‘I’m the conservative,’ and Mike Espy representing Mississippi would be a liberal member of the Senate trying to represent a conservative state … I think it’s a really easy thing to do because of her record, and because of the things Mike Espy has campaigned on, and Mike Espy would put things that much closer to Democrats having a majority in the Senate.”
Barbour said Espy’s raising and spending has been “unheard of for a Democrat” in Mississippi in recent history, but noted most of the bounty is from the national “Democratic machine” and not a groundswell of support in the state.
Barbour said that in the pandemic, with limits on in-person campaigning and door knocking, television and other broadcast advertising will likely be a key factor in the race.
“I think you could argue more people are watching television, glued to it,” Barbour said. “It can be particularly effective in Mississippi because we are not overwhelmed with TV campaign ads like people in Georgia or South Carolina or Arizona are.”
Michael Rejebian, who has worked on multiple campaigns, said a sizable fundraising advantage for a Democrat can help level the playing field in a deep red state like Mississippi.
“The best problem any campaign can have is how to spend money you may not have anticipated having,” said Rejebian, who worked on Democrat Jim Hood’s 2019 gubernatorial campaign that was significantly outraised by eventual winner Republican Tate Reeves.
“Putting that money into an air and ground war to attract undecided voters and increase turnout among supporters is crucial as a campaign enters the final weeks. You can increase your TV, radio, digital, mail and field operations, which certainly helps level the playing field when you’re running as a Democrat in a deep red state. The challenges are still there, of course, but they may not look so daunting when your bank account is healthy.”
Mississippi State University political scientist Marty Wiseman said it is highly unusual in Mississippi for a Democratic candidate to outraise a Republican opponent.
“It is unheard of for a Republican incumbent in Mississippi to be outraised by a challenger,” Wiseman said. “I guess her campaign feels the money is not necessary.”
Instead of focusing primarily on television and internet advertising, Wiseman said Espy should invest in “putting boots on the ground” in Democratic strongholds to turn out voters.
“That takes a lot of work,” he said, but concluded Espy might have a chance based on what appears to be many Republicans taking the race for granted and Hyde-Smith’s often sparse campaigning.
But he cautioned: “You see time and time again in Mississippi where the Democratic candidate looks promising, but then the Democratic candidate ends up claiming a moral victory with 47% of the vote.”
Throughout the month of October, Mississippi Today is hosting some of Mississippi’s most celebrated authors in conversation with Mississippi Today editors and journalists.
We kicked off the Mississippi Writers on Mississippi Politics series with a conversation between Mississippi author Kiese Laymon and Managing Editor Kayleigh Skinner on Tuesday, Oct. 13.
Kiese Laymon is the author of three books, including the reissued How to Slowly Kill Yourself and Others in America (November 2020). Laymon is the Hubert McAlexander Chair of English at the University of Mississippi.
Laymon published “The Front Row” on October 6, 2020. You can read it here.
Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith’s first 2020 attack of Mike Espy foreshadows a contentious two-and-a-half weeks before the Nov. 3 Senate election.
Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, the Republican incumbent running for re-election on Nov. 3, released an attack ad of Democratic challenger Mike Espy this week, foreshadowing a contentious two-and-a-half weeks before the election.
Espy, meanwhile, released two new ads this week touting his desire to reach across the aisle and “deliver for Mississippi.”
The attack ad from Hyde-Smith follows her campaign’s messaging this week that Espy is “desperate” and “is still losing.” Earlier this cycle, Espy released two attacks ads on Hyde-Smith.
“In the election for Senate, you have a clear choice,” a narrator in the Hyde-Smith ad says. “Mike Espy voted to raise your taxes but refused to pay his on time. Cindy Hyde-Smith voted to cut your taxes and grow our economy. Mike Espy voted to give taxpayer funded healthcare to illegal aliens. Cindy Hyde-Smith voted to help rural hospitals with more funding for healthcare. Mike Espy worked as a lobbyist for a foreign dictator charged with war crimes. Cindy Hyde-Smith supports America’s military and law enforcement.”
“Mississippi is a great place to raise a family, but I’m worried our kids will have to leave here to get better jobs,” Eichelberger says, looking directly into the camera. “We need someone in the U.S. Senate who knows how to promote this state. Mike Espy has been delivering for Mississippi his whole life. Cindy Hyde-Smith is costing us jobs, talking about public hangings, refusing to support changing the state flag. It’s not who we are today.”
Earlier in the week, Espy released an ad in which he touts working across the aisle.
“I was Mississippi’s first Black congressman since Reconstruction, and I’ve always fought to deliver for our state,” Espy says in the ad that first aired on Sunday. “I’ve passed laws with Republicans, like Thad Cochran and President Reagan, to bring good jobs here. And as Secretary of Agriculture, I opened markets for Mississippi all around the world.”
Espy continued: “I approve this message because I do what’s best for Mississippi regardless of party, and I know how to get our fair share in Washington.”
The Hyde-Smith and Espy campaigns plan to flood Mississippi airwaves with ads between now and Election Day. The latest campaign finance reports, which will show how much money each campaign has to spend in the waning days of the election, are due to be submitted by the end of the day Thursday.
In the beginning, it was simple curiosity. Over time, that casual curiosity grew into a deep friendship and dogged determination to keep a promise for a dying wish.
Such is the unlikely journey of Suzi Altman of Brandon, on a mission to preserve Margaret’s Grocery in Vicksburg.
Altman’s friendship with Rev. H.D. Dennis and his wife Margaret Dennis began in 2001. The reverend promised Margaret a castle if she married him. She did, and he began construction in 1979, using reclaimed and recycled materials for the build.
Before he died in 2009, the reverend told Altman he was a prisoner of war in World War II and the Nazis taught him how to lay brick. Architects and contractors from around the country have marveled at the castle’s staying power. Only advanced age and illness brought his never-ending project to an end. The ravages of time and thieves have severely damaged the property. Dennis asked Altman to promise she would save the castle he built for his lady love. Altman has established the Mississippi Folk Art Foundation to preserve and protect the site.
“It’s not about me,” Altman said. “It’s about preserving fantastic folk art and a part of Mississippi’s culture.”
