Mathematically speaking, Democrat Scott Colom’s chances of defeating Republican U.S. Sen. Cindy-Hyde-Smith this November might be underestimated.

Many prediction markets give Democrats a near even money chance of capturing the Senate in the November midterm election, based on surprising polling numbers in usual red states including Texas, Alaska, Iowa and Ohio.

But neither those prediction markets nor the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee are counting on Mississippi being a state that helps put the Democrats over the top.

Granted, the odds are far from favorable for Colom, a district attorney from Lowndes County, to upset Hyde-Smith, who was appointed in 2018 to the Senate by then-Gov. Phil Bryant after Thad Cochran stepped down. This is her third election campaign since the appointment.

The reasons Colom is considered a long-shot are many. Mississippi last elected a Democrat to the Senate in 1982, and the last Democratic governor was elected in 1999. A Democrat has not won a statewide election in Mississippi since 2015, when Jim Hood was reelected as attorney general.

In addition, a U.S. senator from Mississippi has not been defeated since 1942. From an historical standpoint, things don’t look good for Colom

And on top of everything else, it is not clear how many votes independent Senate candidate Ty Pinkins, a former Democrat, will siphon from Colom. Pinkins could erase the slight chance Colom has.

But let’s consider a path forward for Colom with the assumption that Pinkins’ impact will be minimal.

Based on recent election results, there is a mathematical path forward – at least the proverbial puncher’s chance – for a Colom victory.

The outcomes of the two most recent statewide elections – the 2024 U.S. presidential election and the 2023 gubernatorial election – provide a roadmap for Colom and his supporters.

In the 2024 general election, 1,228,008 Mississippians voted and gave Republican Donald Trump a sizable 60% to 38% victory over Democrat Kamala Harris. The turnout will be less in this November’s midterm. History tells us it will be much less.

But perhaps turnout in a midterm election could equal that of the 2023 Mississippi gubernatorial election, when some 821,000 people voted. In that election, Republican incumbent Tate Reeves held on to defeat Northern District Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley 51% to 48% or by a mere 26,619 votes.

Every election is different, but some patterns do emerge.

Granted, these are big ifs, but it is reasonable to assume that the turnout this November will be similar to that in the 2023 gubernatorial election – higher than most federal midterm elections but less than a presidential election.

And if that is the case, it is not far-fetched for Colom to find 27,000 more votes, or enough to put him over the top.

Consider the possibility that national polls are correct and the enthusiasm among Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters is much higher than that of Republican voters. A recent national poll indicates that Trump is underwater – more unpopular than popular– in every state except Idaho, Wyoming and West Virginia. His approval rating in Mississippi is minus 15, according to the YouGov polling tracked by The Economist.

Still, where does Colom find 27,000 additional votes if, indeed, the 2023 gubernatorial election is the benchmark?

In just five larger counties, – Hinds, Rankin, Harrison, Madison and DeSoto – if the Democratic turnout is similar to the 2024 presidential election in Mississippi, Colom could easily garner 30,000 votes. That is not even taking into account whether he could make similar inroads in other larger counties, such as Lee, Lowndes, Forrest and others.

Heck, just in DeSoto County in northwest Mississippi, 14,000 more people voted for Harris in 2024 than voted for Presley in the 2023 gubernatorial contest.

Can Colom convince the people who came out to vote for Kamala Harris in 2023 to go to the polls in November and vote for him?

If Colom can gain a margin closer to the 2024 Democratic turnout and Republicans vote at their traditional midterm election numbers, Colom can win. He does not need to equal the turnout Harris received in 2024. He just has to be considerably closer to it than to the Presley turnout in 2023.

Sure, it is a big if, but mathematically speaking, it is possible.