Mississippi State quarterback K.J. Costello threw for 623 yards at LSU on Saturday. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)

Eager Mississippi football fans had waited months for the coaching debuts of Mike Leach at Mississippi State and Lane Kiffin at Ole Miss.

And while both famous coaches had their moments Saturday, the day belonged to Leach, his new quarterback K.J. Costello and the Mississippi State Bulldogs. All they did was set school and Southeastern Conference passing records en route to a 44-34 victory over defending national champion LSU at Baton Rouge.

“Better than average,” Leach deadpanned, and Leach is most assuredly the master of deadpans.

With Costello throwing an array of lovely passes for a stunning 623 yards, State defeated the nation’s sixth-ranked team and is certain to rise high up into college football’s Top 25. The Southeastern Conference is in its 87^th season of football, and it took Leach’s Air Raid offense just one game to set the league’s single game passing record.

Earlier in the day, Ole Miss put up a whopping 617 yards of total offense against fifth-ranked Florida, but the Rebels were virtually defense-less against the Gators and wound up on the short end of a 51-35 decision. Kiffin’s imaginative Ole Miss offense will score lots and lots of points this season, but the Rebel defense must improve dramatically for all those yards and points to translate into many victories.

Rick Cleveland

Let’s put it this way: The over/under betting number for the Egg Bowl might be 90, maybe more.

I’ll just go ahead and throw this out there: Florida is a lot better football team than LSU presently. I don’t care who you are, you don’t lose 14 NFL draft picks, including five first rounders, the Heisman Trophy winner, your defensive coordinator, five other players who signed free agent contracts, your passing game coach — you don’t lose all that and just keep on keeping on.

LSU was also missing its best cover cornerback, All American Derek Stingley, Jr., who was ill. That would hurt you against anybody, but against Leach and Costello and the Air Raid offense, Stingley was especially missed. The Tigers stubbornly continued to play press man-to-man coverage against the Bulldogs and Costello picked it apart. Receivers were open and Costello, both accurate and resourceful, hit them in stride.

That said, the biggest difference between Mississippi State and Ole Miss Saturday was on the defensive side of the ball. There, Leach has inherited more SEC-caliber players than Kiffin, especially in the front seven.

State limited LSU’s normally strong running game to 2.1 yards per rush. The Bulldogs sacked Tiger quarterback Myles Brennen seven times.

Meanwhile, at Oxford, Ole Miss often looked defense-less. Florida threw for 442 yards and ran for nearly 200. The Gators averaged nearly nine yards per play. “Video game numbers,” Kiffin called the Gators offensive stats, and they were.

But this wasn’t a lack of defensive scheming. This wasn’t coaching. This wasn’t Xs and Os. It was, as they say, Jimmys and Joes. Seems like we’ve been writing this for years now, but Ole Miss simply has to get better, bigger and faster on that side of the ball.

Offensively, the Rebels are fun. They have many, many weapons, including wide receiver Elijah Moore, who caught 10 passes for a whopping 227 yards. Those are video game numbers, too. Quarterback Matt Corral threw for 395 yards. Running back Jerrion Ealy produced 161 yards running, receiving and kick returning. Receiver Dontario Drummond threw one pass for 45 yards and caught two more for 60 yards. Transfer tight end Kenny Yeboah is still another weapon.

But again, the first big day in this weird football season belonged to Mississippi State. Think about all the factors: New coach, new quarterback, new offense, new defensive coordinator, no spring training, first game on the road against the defending national champion in a national network broadcast.

Yes, and every time those CBS cameras focused on Leach along the Mississippi State sideline, he seemed to be taking it in as if he were picking out produce at the market.

“Better than average,” he would later say.

Well, yeah.

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How Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s death may affect the U.S. Senate race in Mississippi. (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta)

Mike Espy, like most Democratic Senate candidates across the nation, has significantly benefitted from campaign contributions following the death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg and as a Senate fight looms over filling the court seat she left vacant.

But whether that fight will help Espy win a Senate election here in Mississippi remains to be seen.

The death of Ginsburg and soon after the release of a poll showing Espy within one percentage point of incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith have focused attention on a Mississippi race that to a large extent had been overlooked by the national and state media. It should be stressed that the poll, by the Tyson Group, was conducted in late August before the death of Ginsburg.

But during about a four day period after Ginsburg’s death, Espy received more than $1 million in campaign donations — a record amount for his campaign and enough to ensure he is at least financially competitive with Hyde-Smith ahead of the Nov. 3 election.

The fundraising was fueled by Democrats and others who believe that President Donald Trump should not get to nominate a new justice before voters decide days later whether he will serve another four years as president, and that a Republican Senate should not confirm a replacement for Ginsburg until January when a new Senate term begins.

The death of Ginsburg, the best-known member of the Supreme Court, has evoked passion by Democrats on the issue of filling federal court vacancies. Passion on that issue had been primarily on the side of Republicans in past elections.

While an argument could be made that this passion could benefit Democrats in Senate races in many parts of the country, it is not so clear what the impact will be in Mississippi.

“This is an important issue for both parties,” said Nathan Shrader, chair of the Department of Government and Politics at Millsaps College. “I think in Mississippi this could benefit Cindy Hyde-Smith. It is another opportunity for her to say a vote for her is a vote for Donald Trump.”

Based on polling, it would appear Mississippians would support a Trump nominee who would help overturn Supreme Court rulings that have made abortion legal throughout the nation.

But many Mississippians might not be so enamored with a Trump nominee, who in the middle of the COVID-19 pandemic could help to overturn the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, better known as “Obamacare,” that provides health care coverage to about 100,000 people in the state and provides protection for pre-existing conditions to about 600,000 Mississippians.

Theoretically, a new justice appointed by Trump could be serving on Nov. 10, when his administration argues before the Supreme Court the ACA should be overturned. It is safe to assume that new nominee would side with Trump on overturning the health care law. Hyde-Smith also supports overturning the ACA. Both Trump and Hyde-Smith have said they support protecting people with pre-existing conditions, but they have not yet provided a plan that health care groups say would guarantee insurance companies provide coverage to people with pre-existing conditions. In addition, they have yet to offer a comprehensive and workable plan to provide coverage to the tens of thousands Mississippians who have health care coverage through the ACA.

Espy already has said he wants to make this election about health care.

“This is the No. 1 issue for the Espy campaign,” Espy said. “It is the No. 1 issue in Mississippi.”

Granted, the health care argument as it relates to the Supreme Court is more nuanced than the abortion argument. But Espy now has the money to broadly make that argument.

On the issue of abortion, a 2014 poll by the Pew Research Center found that 59% of Mississippians support making abortion illegal in most/all instances, while 36% favor making it legal in most/all instances. A more recent April 2019 poll conducted by Mississippi-based Chism Strategies for Millsaps College found that 43% of the respondents said the issue of abortion should be left up to the woman and her health care provider.

Mississippians also feel strongly about health care. Another Chism/Millsaps Poll released in January found 70% of Mississippians were concerned about being able to afford health care. A case could be made that the demise of the ACA could further worry many Mississippians who are concerned about health care affordability. Both sides can make arguments on how a new Trump appointee would be good or bad for Mississippians.

The biggest factor in the November election for the U.S. Senate seat in Mississippi could boil down to whether voters are more concerned about abortion or about health care more broadly.

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‘Just enough of the right stuff’: Why Mississippi’s COVID-19 numbers are flattening

By Erica Hensley | Sept. 25, 2020

After a steep summer climb in coronavirus cases, Mississippi’s average daily numbers are at the lowest point in three months.

How fast the virus spreads in an area is a function of many things, but they all revolve around behavior and math. Virus transmission boils down to a numbers game — when fewer people have and spread the virus, transmission thins out, helping to flatten the curve over time. The idea of flattening the curve has never been about stopping spread, but reducing that spread over time so health systems are not overwhelmed. Spread is inevitable — it’s limiting and containing transmission that drives infectious disease mitigation strategies.

State Health Officer Thomas Dobbs said Wednesday that statewide efforts to reduce spread since the late July peak are paying off, but new challenges will arise.

“We’re very pleased that we’ve seen this fall trend go so well thus far, knock on wood. The coronavirus I think is a little bit finicky and if you do just enough of the right stuff you can get that R-naught (reproduction) value less than one. And if you get it less than one, then you’re constantly driving it down — it’s just a matter of how fast you’re driving it down,” Dobbs said, adding the “combination of masks, a little bit better social distancing” and strict school policies have slowed the overall spread, though case clusters persist.

“We hope that everybody just keeps up the good work because I think we can continue to keep it down and get through the fall if we just maintain masking and distancing, especially as we go into the holidays, there will be those new challenges,” he said.

A pivotal piece to understanding transmission is the R-naught value that Dobbs referenced, often referred to as just R or the reproduction rate. Three months ago, when Mississippi was entering its summer case surge, the state’s R value was one of the highest in the nation. Now, it’s one of the lowest.

The reproduction rate is just one measure of how the virus is spreading, similar to doubling time. It measures the average number of people infected by each initial infection, representing how much the disease is spreading. If the value is under one, spread is more limited and easier to contain. Above one signifies more uncontrolled spread, meaning infected people are each spreading to more people.

Mississippi’s R hit its lowest point ever exactly two weeks after Gov. Tate Reeves ordered a statewide mask mandate. On August 19 the state’s R dipped to .88 — meaning on average, each person with COVID-19 spread it to less than one person. It has since crept up slightly, but still hovers below one.

Though the state’s number of daily new cases has trended down since late-July, Mississippi still has the third most total cases per capita as of Thursday, at 3,202 per 100,000 people — only behind Louisiana and Florida. The state also has the seventh most total COVID-19 deaths per capita, at 97 per 100,000 people, and the nation’s highest recent death rate, at four per capita over the past week.

R has long been used by infectious disease experts, who say, like all COVID-19 metrics, it’s imperfect, often misunderstood and shouldn’t be used as a guiding star because it misses granular detail, like outbreaks and local spread. If cases are spreading drastically in one area due to a cluster, but tapering off in others where regulations are perhaps more strictly adhered to, the R average could cancel each of those out and paint an imprecise picture. Overall though, it helps gauge how much the virus is spreading across a state.

Importantly, according to those who track and model disease spread, R measures how widespread the virus is, not how fast it’s spreading. Too, R doesn’t calculate why or how infection spreads, such as if people are just more contagious, like a cluster of severe cases, or if their behavior is more risky, like socializing in crowded, indoor areas. That’s where contact tracing comes in.

R is only a piece of the puzzle, and needs to be dovetailed with other disease-tracking pieces to be effective, researchers say. Robust contact tracing, diagnostic and surveillance testing — to catch both active and asymptomatic infections, and spread mitigation efforts, like masks and social distancing, all need to work together to inform policy.

Researchers say R shouldn’t be used as a real-time policy-making tool, but more a lagging indicator — essentially, it can help officials look back at trends to see what worked.

Mississippi has been under a statewide mask mandate since early August, with the current order expiring September 30. Additional mandated restrictions to reduce spread include: Limiting arenas to 25% capacity and prohibiting tailgating, and 75% capacity for retail, restaurants and bars, and bars must close at 11 p.m..

Dobbs says schools’ strict adherence to COVID-19 guidelines have helped mitigate spread, and in turn kept new cases and the R value down. But outbreaks persist and threaten to reverse downward trends where folks continue to gather without masking and distancing, he said.

To date, schools have seen 2,400 cases total, with 382 new cases over the last week. Though statewide trends have improved, younger age groups still comprise a disproportionate share of all cases.

Dobbs says most schools have policies in place that are limiting spread once it is brought in. He praised universities for planning for and curbing the virus, though they have seen recent spikes and have varying approaches to containing spread.

“It’s social stuff that’s killing us as far as when we were having outbreaks. It’s parties, and it’s even small gatherings of people getting together,” he said. “If we look at schools settings, where we’re seeing most of our outbreaks and transmission, it’s not really going to be in these controlled structured settings within the classrooms, it seems mostly to be in athletics or extracurriculars where we know there’s going to be more chaotic movement and less control as far as where kids are and (are not) wearing the masks.”

Visit our data page for more Mississippi COVID-19 trends and school trends here.

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Eric J. Shelton/Mississippi Today

Lawmakers at the Capitol during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Despite unprecedented growth in revenue collections during the first two months of the current fiscal year, House Speaker Philip Gunn warned Thursday that legislative leaders should spend cautiously as they begin the lengthy process of developing a budget for the next one, which begins July 1.

Gunn made his remarks during a hearing of the Legislative Budget Committee where Corey Miller, an economic analyst for the state Institutions of Higher Learning, told the panel the state economy had been buoyed by funds Mississippians received from the federal Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security (CARES) Act.

“We attribute much of this performance to the federal transfers from the CARES Act, which included additional unemployment benefits, the Paycheck Protection Program, and the $1,200 taxpayer stimulus checks,” Miller told legislative leaders.

Gunn said, based on estimates he had seen, $6 billion in federal funds were pumped into the state to provide enhanced unemployment benefits, grants to small businesses through the PPP and direct payments of $1,200 to most Mississippi adults.

Based in large part on the CARES funds, state revenue collections during the first two months of the fiscal year increased almost 35%, or roughly $258 million. Still, Gunn said there is a likelihood state tax collections will slow considerably in the coming months, leaving legislators with tough choices to make in funding education, health care, law enforcement and other aspects of state government.

Earlier in the summer, the Legislature passed a budget for the current fiscal that was $84.5 million, or 1.3% less than what was appropriated the previous year. In that budget most agencies absorbed small cuts and many were hoping with the strong revenue collections this year they could recoup some of those losses.

Miller said the state lost 122,400 jobs in March and April as the COVID-19 pandemic exploded — 10.5% of the workforce. The drop in the national workforce was 14.5%, he said. The state has recouped 71% of those jobs, compared to 48% on the national level.

“The COVID-19 recession has hit service sectors the hardest, and service sectors make up a smaller share of Mississippi’s economy compared to the U.S. economy, both in terms of output and employment,” Miller said.

The size of Mississippi’s economy reduced 20.9% during the second quarter, compared 31.7% on the national level. While the economy has rebounded, Miller said both nationally and in the state the expectation is that there will be substantial contractions for the economy for the calendar year. Growth is expected to occur in 2021, though, and the state is projected to rebound to its current trend of lagging behind the national economy.

Lt. Gov. Delbert Hosemann asked how much the state was harmed by having one of the nation’s lowest work force participation rates, which references the number of people eligible to work compared to those actually working or pursuing work. Miller said the state’s work force participation rate was 55 percent before COVID-19 hit and most likely had dropped some.

“Our economy is not as productive as it would be if we had more people employed,” Miller said.

The budget committee also heard the budget requests of multiple agencies Thursday, including:

CORRECTIONS

The troubled Mississippi Department of Corrections is requesting an increase in its budget of nearly $33 million, to $365 million, for the coming year, to hire more officers and make other improvements in efforts to stave off action by the federal government that could force far more spending, new MDOC Commissioner Burl Cain told lawmakers.

“This department has been neglected so much by the people who ran it before that we are having to play catch-up,” Cain said.

Cain said he is also focusing on rehabilitation and re-entry programs, but wants to go beyond just education and skills training for inmates, and provide religious programs as he did when he led the Louisiana prisons system.

“If you don’t so something about the heart — teach morality — then you’ve just created a smarter criminal,” Cain said. “It takes religion. That’s where you find morality quicker than anything else. I don’t care what religion it is.”

PUBLIC SAFETY

The Department of Public Safety is asking for a budget of $97 million, a $5.7 million from the current year.

New Public Safety Commissioner Sean Tindell said the department has been making improvements to its embattled driver’s licenses services that will reduce long waits and lines. He said the agency also continues planning for a new headquarters campus in Rankin County, and hopes to start construction on the $70 million facility in 2021 and complete it in 2024. Tindell said he hopes to train and hire more Mississippi Highway Patrol troopers and more Mississippi Bureau of Narcotics agents to combat the opioid problem, which he said has been exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic.

MEDICAID

The federal-state health program that serves 760,000 Mississippians is asking for $898 million in state funds for the coming year, a decrease of $496,000 from the current year, Medicaid Director Drew Snyder told lawmakers. He said the agency might even carry forward a balance.

But Snyder said the future is uncertain with the COVID-19 pandemic and “the Medicaid budget is always fluid and at this point it’s even more so.”

Snyder said states have been seeing “enhanced federal match” money and that early in the pandemic there was a dramatic decrease in utilization by Medicaid recipients when people were sheltering in place. The federal share of Medicaid spending during the pandemic, Snyder said, increased from nearly 77% to 83%, reducing the state’s share of costs.

K-12 PUBLIC EDUCATION

The Mississippi Department of Education is asking lawmakers for a budget of $2.86 billion for the coming year, an $311 million increase from the current year.

The bulk of the requested increase —$283 million — would be to fully fund the Mississippi Adequate Education Program — a formula set in law by the Legislature to fund schools which lawmakers have fully funded only twice over 30 years.

Superintendent of Education Carey Wright told lawmakers the system is dealing with challenges during the COVID-19 pandemic including maintaining statewide distance learning and handling a massive project to buy 390,000 computers and tablet devices for students and teachers.

“This is giving us a time to think differently about it and be innovative,” Wright said. “But you’re never going to replace a teacher.”

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